Dana Blankenhorn

YIMBY vs. NIMBY

There’s a growing movement of renters, working in conjunction with real estate developers, aiming to blockbust urban neighborhoods.

It’s called Yes In My Back Yard (YIMBY). It creates political support for developers in the name of “affordable housing.” It calls homeowners NIMBYs (for Not In My Back Yard) and denigrates their concerns. It’s a great way for developers to make money and it’s splitting cities apart.

If you’re renting this isn’t your backyard. Renters have no stake in the future of the places they rent. Owners do. Neighborhoods of renters are less stable than those where owners occupy houses. The owners of rental housing often resist repairs, and those who live in rental housing don’t take up that slack. It’s the difference between the chicken and the pig at breakfast time. A renter may be interested. An owner is committed.

The Limits of Senior Power

If I were around 100 years ago, I would be dead. Instead, I’m rich. (Pictured are my grandparents, May and Edmund O'Donnell, in 1918.)

It’s a demographic and economic transformation that is destroying hope for change in America and (perhaps) making us the last generation.

Until recently, people lived their first 20 years dependent on parents, the next 20 as parents, the next (if they were lucky) 20 as grandparents and anything past that dependent on the children. Most of the world still lives this way.

But starting with Social Security in 1934, and continuing through general prosperity to today, America has turned this on its head. Seniors aren’t just living to an average age of 83, we’re doing it with money. I’m just a 68-year old journalist but, thanks in large part to a wife who works in tech, I’m a millionaire. We own our house. We have enough invested to guarantee a fine retirement, God willing. There may even be something left when we’re gone.

This has changed political incentives. There’s no better example than Florida where The Villages, a huge retirement town of 150,000 (almost all of whom vote), has turned the state’s politics on its head. Add them to those already living up-and-down the state’s east, west and south coasts, and you get a huge state entirely devoted to short term thinking. Education, the environment? Fuck ‘em. We’ll be gone.

The Other Arms Race

We talk a lot about guns in the US, without doing anything about them.

But there’s another, even more dangerous arms race, going on.

It involves cars.

It’s not just that there are too many of them. They’re too damned big. Spending $60,000 for a pick-up that will never see a trailer hitch, or an SUV higher than an elephant’s eye, is stupid. Especially since these cars are sitting, unused, 90% of the time.

People buy giant cars for the same reason they buy guns. They make you feel safe. They buy as much car as they can afford, like these things are houses.

2022: The Global Cold War

It was clear in 2020 that Americans were at war with ourselves.

In 2021 that became a Cold War, mostly played out in the media and state legislatures. There were some violent outbursts. There always are. But for the most part it was our war.

In 2022 that war became global. Russia invaded Ukraine. China ratcheted up its rhetoric about invading Taiwan. Afghanistan and Iran criminalized every woman in their countries. And the war became hotter here.

With the good people of this country activated, we won some notable victories. We held off the horde in our general election. Ukraine held off Russia. China’s economy rolled over, giving Xi Jinping something else to think about. Iran’s women revolted. Jair Bolsonaro lost his re-election.

The Trouble with E-Bikes

A month ago, I bought an e-Bike for the family. The Lectric 3 is a great value at $1,000. It folds to fit into a trunk, gets 20 miles of hills on a charge. It can do our shopping, my son’s commute, and even get me back to Stone Mountain next year.

Meanwhile, one of Atlanta’s city councilmembers has introduced an e-Bike rebate program. It’s an effort to accelerate uptake, which barely needs the stimulus.

But before the revolution, we need to talk. There’s trouble coming to River City.

You can already see it if you ride the Beltline, which Atlanta advertises as its ticket to the future. The Beltline is a long sidewalk that sits on old railroad right of way. By the end of the decade, it’s supposed to run all the way around intown Atlanta, 22 miles in all.

I love the Beltline. I love the idea that the city is building paths leading to the Beltline. I love the idea that e-Bikes could force planners to assume less inner-city car traffic.

But…

Positives of a Tech Recession

Despite some stunning investment losses, I’m enjoying the latest tech recession.

No one likes a recession, but sometimes it’s like spring cleaning, necessary to clear the excess. There were a lot of zombie technologies, zombie companies and zombie assumptions that have been overrun since the Fed decided that money should cost money and there should be less of it around.

Web3, the metaverse, and crypto were all fake from the jump. Advocates for streaming and podcasting didn’t understand that the gating factor is time, not money. A lot of companies were selling themselves based solely on sales growth, ignoring the need for profit.

This means there’s now opportunity, in the form of talent, for new ideas that will power the economy forward. The main trends I described in 2019 – the end of oil, the Machine Internet, and DNA as a Programming Language – they’re still on. But there’s a lot more, too.

Urban Game Changer

I’ve been a bicyclist my whole life. My present one dates from 1981, and it works great. (Here it is in Centennial Olympic Park last year.)

I know most people aren’t me. Bicycling remains a niche activity. Bike lanes are rare because there is little demand. Rail lines scale, but they’re inflexible. Cars offer comfort, but roads don’t scale. The urban environment is little changed from when I came to Atlanta in 1981.

I’m getting older. At 67, the heart rate needed to maintain a good speed for a half hour is near my limit. All I’m good for at the end of 10 miles today is a nap.

But electric bikes are a game changer. I finally bought one this week, a Lectric 3.0. It unfolded from its box in about an hour and took no tools to set up. The battery runs 20-40 miles between charges, for which you use a 3-prong wall plug and a power supply just like your old laptop. Anyone can get it to go 10 mph, even over hills. You can buy a passenger seat or grocery baskets.

Junk Tech

Imagination is in a constant competition with Moore’s Law.

Imagination often loses.

Moore’s Law makes many things possible. Not all these things are worth doing.

I call things that aren’t worth doing junk tech.

Bitcoin is junk tech. Web3 is junk tech. Blockchain is junk tech. So is the “metaverse,” in the sense that we should all live in a virtual world rather than the real one.

Good applications can come from junk. The home shopping service I supported in 1984 became an Electronic Data Interchange (EDI) format. The map CD-ROM I worked on in 1989 became a format for geographic data. Creating lemonade from lemons is always a great opportunity.

The IBM Car

In my work covering the electric car market for InvestorPlace, I have noticed a big hole in the mid-market.

There is no electric equivalent of a Chevy or Ford. All we have are Cadillacs and Lincolns.

There are two reasons for this.

First, American car companies abandoned the mid-market decades ago. They abandoned sedans and functional cars for overloaded SUVs and pick-ups. It’s what they said their customers wanted. It’s where the profits were. The mid-market was left to the Japanese and Koreans. Most of the sedans in my middle income Atlanta neighborhood are Toyotas or Kias.

Second, everyone wants to be Tesla. Tesla made a luxury product, they got top dollar for it, and they got big profits from it. Every other U.S. and European car company is following that path. You can hardly blame them. GM tried small cars with the Volt and Bolt. Both failed.

The Last Dance for Oil and Gas

Oil prices have been falling in recent weeks, and analysts have been telling investors to “buy the dip.”

They’re wrong.

The current “energy crisis” is a short-term phenomenon, caused by Russia’s invasion and falling production. Few people seem to comprehend that the falling production has a cause. The cause is a clear understanding that renewable energy prices are coming down. 

The new buzzword is “grid parity.” The definition is that solar and wind energy equal the cost of fossil fuel energy, without subsidy. That doesn’t just require panels and turbines. It also requires storage, so power levels can be boosted and lowered at will.