One point lost in our arguments about transportation is how electricity scales in ways that engines powered by fossil fuels can’t.
We think of e-bikes or EVs because they’re analogues to the choices forced on us by fossil fuels. Anything powered by fossil fuels must have its fuel, an engine, and a transmission on it. The efficiency is about 20%.
With electricity, the battery and motor can be any size. The efficiency is 100%. There’s no vibration, almost no noise.
This means we can create electric vehicles of any size, scaled to any load, riding on anything. If you don’t trust my $2,000 e-bike, you can spend $1,500 for a Fat Bear electric scooter that goes up to 30 mph, and 30 miles on a charge.
Electric wheelchairs can climb stairs. We can already make “electric mobility scooters,” fast wheelchairs, that go 15 mph. How about one that’s fast enough for the road, or the freeway?
Imagine what we can do with better batteries. Batteries will get smaller, and lighter, with more range and energy density, in just a few years. That will mean e-bikes with a longer range without charges, lighter electric cars, and faster wheelchairs.
Use Your Imagination
We also have yet to scratch the surface of what tomorrow’s transportation will look like. As I’ve already written, an EV is just a battery with a top on it. The motor and power train are all at wheel level. You want a small car, an SUV, a truck? It’s the same underneath.
Electricity can scale the motor and battery to the load. You don’t have to own your transport, either. We already know, from the failed tests of Bird and Lime, how you can rent electric transport easily. A bigger Bird to take shopping. A Lime with a trailer. Three wheels for stability. Computers for most of the driving.
Right now, our transportation planning is locked into an old model. You buy a car for its maximum load, and for the longest trip you’ll need it for. That’s because the initial cost of a combustion engine is very high. That’s not true with electricity. Whatever the scale of your job, something will be available, something that goes at the speed you need, with the capacity you need, and with the range you need. You also won’t have to own it.
We are drastically underestimating the impact of all this on our cities and on how we will live.
