If we’re to get through 2023 alive, we’re going to have to take joy where we find it.
We certainly didn’t find it in journalism this year. Editors on every beat have taken to writing aggressive, clickbait headlines, designed to provoke feelings of anger and depression. They do it because they’re rewarded by the algorithms of a failing Internet business model. They do it to boost traffic.
This is even true on my business beat, where every negative headline has a positive corollary. Rising prices create incentives and profits for producers. Rising interest rates mean savers can finally catch a break. Layoffs create opportunity for other employers while the job market remains tight.
The headlines are misleading because they take just one side. They make it appear the economy and markets are terrible even though the former is not.
There’s a natural business cycle, especially in tech. When greed is in fashion, dumb ideas get rewarded with fortunes. Crypto, SPACs, high valuations without profit. We always get carried away. A recession in this field can be a good thing. It forces people to go back to basics. It makes them think again. It gets them to focus on providing value, not just cash flow.
The last recession resulted in the cloud. I think this one will result in Intranets of Systems. A warehouse is a system, but so is a hospital. Chips have gotten cheaper, software can scale with wireless networks, so it’s possible to connect every machine, every device, and every bed in a hospital into an orchestration layer that can maximize efficiency and (most important) keep people alive. The Machine Internet will be one big result of the present recession because we have the tools, we only need to put them together, and there’s enormous value to be created.
What has been unique about the last two years is how suffering has been minimized by the government focus on care. Most of the whining is directed by rich people who have seen the value of their investments in stocks, bonds, and housing decline. But that’s not suffering. Business reporters shouldn’t pretend that it is. Especially since the move was telegraphed by the Fed well in advance. If you didn’t listen, that’s on you.
Thanks to our support of Ukraine, and the courage of our leaders, freedom rose in 2022 while autocracy fell. You think you have it bad? Imagine being Russian, or Iranian, or Afghani, or Chinese. Our ideological adversaries are pulling out all the stops to stay in power. If we just keep the pressure on, people may liberate themselves. It should be OK if, after they do that, they don’t bend to our will. It’s time for the majority of the world’s people (most people in this world are Asian) to find their own will and their own way.
The point is there are many reasons to feel hopeful about 2023. Journalism has failed, or rather its old web-based business model has failed. New models will rise. Many technologies have failed, but more will rise. Many people are suffering, but they will find their voice and rise. If we join the chorus big things are possible. Happy New Year.
