An Army travels on its stomach. It’s not generals who win wars. It’s economies.
This is the lesson of the Civil War and World War II. It’s the lesson of Ukraine.
War “experts” like to ignore this. They assume dictators can always get more of what they need from somewhere. Thus, they over-estimate America’s foes and under-estimate America itself.
Putin is all-in on the Ukraine invasion. He can’t put in more people without risking civil strife in Belarus, Kazakhstan, Georgia or even Russia itself. He can’t get more of anything, and his people are getting hungry. Money no longer works. Russia hasn’t had much manufacturing capacity since the Soviet era. The population was already falling due to vodka and COVID.
What’s needed to end the war is a way out of it. That’s why the President’s moves to re-supply Ukraine are all covert. The Congressional anger at Biden helps our cause. It lets him play the good cop.
When you’re asking China for help, you’re losing. China is in no position to help. It has its own COVID problems, its economy is flailing, and hundreds of millions who just joined the global middle class aren’t going back to subsistence living without a fight.
In the 21st century, a fight means something different than it meant in the 20th. What Putin has launched is a 20th century fight. A 21st century fight requires the enthusiastic support of innovative, educated people. You can’t get that in a demand economy.
This is what Xi Jinping is now learning. In addition to the lockdowns there’s a Hong Kong brain drain, a collapsing stock market and more property bankruptcies than the Central Bank can easily handle. The value of the Yuan against the dollar is reversing, which will hurt his effort to buy Saudi oil with it.
If you want to know the truth about foreign policy don’t ask a general. Ask an economist.
