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2012: The Landslide

by Dana Blankenhorn
December 16, 2011
in A-Clue, business models, Crisis of 2008, Current Affairs, economy, energy, futurism, hydrogen, investment, Personal, political philosophy, politics, solar energy, The 1971 Game, The Age of Obama, The War Against Oil, wind power
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Think of this as Volume 15, Number 52 of A-Clue.com, the online newsletter I've written since 1997. Enjoy.


Nixon-obama-morphThe future is hard to know, but in this case it's easy to guess.

There is a Democratic landslide in our future.

No one in the media wants to admit this, but it's baked in.

Once Americans take a decisive turn, and we've only taken six in our whole history as a nation before now, we don't reverse course.

We validate that turn, moving closer to our historic balance of rights and responsibilities, between money and power, between rich and poor, among one another.

The President put his case plainly in Osawatomie, Kansas. Republicans, meanwhile, have been forced to double-down on what got them in trouble before, with militarists, Christianists and Wall Street all thumping their chests, avoiding responsibility for Iraq, Katrina, and the Big Shitpile. Until they do that, until they take the equivalent of 12 steps to political sobriety, they can't come back to power.

Closeup of chart solar costsWhat's driving all this, of course, is a gradual re-allocation of capital from Texas to California, from caveman energy to harvested energy. Many financial analysts still close their eyes to this reality, pretending that oil shale can be extracted without water, or that natural gas can be fracked without harm. It's true that these external costs are not reflected in prices, just as the wars of the last generation weren't reflected in them. But in the end that doesn't matter, because innovation keeps driving the cost of alternatives down.

The Crossover I have written about in the past, the point at which renewable energy becomes the cheap energy, is not going to be a single point in time. Add pollution and war to the cost of producing oil and we've already reached crossover. States like New Jersey will reach crossover before states like Georgia. And even after crossover, energy will retain external costs that may not always be reflected in its price, as with Brazil's destruction of its rainforest to grow sugar and build dams. But the crisis of that crossover is passing over us now, as multiple generations of solar power equipment can be expected between now and 2016, each at least twice as good as what came before, when advances in yield, costs, installation and distribution costs are combined.

Political change follows economic change. It leads to a new center, a new thesis, a new set of assumptions on which power is based. What I have called the Obama Thesis of Consensus holds that we're all in the same boat, that the rich can't get richer unless everyone else does, that science and learning hold the key to success, and that progress is defined by what the whole country is doing, not any one group.

You-can't-take-it-with-you-screenshotTo think otherwise is to repeal the 20th century and every lesson learned, at so much cost, during that time. There is nothing radical or socialist or fascist in the President's agenda. It's placed in context best by the old movies of Frank Capra, like his 1938 Oscar winner, the aptly named “You Can't Take It With You.” The wealthy man finds a poor man, who rejected wealth, is more wealthy than he is in all the ways that count, and that there is more to value in this life than profit.

That's the theme of most Capra movies. It's the theme of Dickens' “A Christmas Carol.” It's the theme at the heart of the New Testament. It's morality as your parents taught it to you. And if it's communism, if it's socialism, then Teddy Roosevelt was a communist, and so was Jesus Christ.

Every political thesis in American history has moved in this way, and has been validated in this way. The second election after the crisis is the one that counts. Nixonism was validated in the defeat of George McGovern, and the New Deal was only validated on the back of Alf Landon. McKinley had to beat Bryan twice, Lincoln's Union beat McClellan's peace party, and on back to the re-elections of Andrew Jackson and Thomas Jefferson.

Wj bryanWhat happened in 1804, in 1832, in 1864, in 1900 and 1936, what happened in 1972 was that a new story of America was laid out clearly before us, one that resonated with our beliefs about ourselves, one that rejected certain war-like tendencies within the body politic and endorsed a new kind of social peace instead.

That's what Osawatomie was all about. The coming election is all over but the shouting. Give the American people an honest choice, a clear choice, and they will always move forward.

What's left for the opposition then is to conform themselves to this new reality, to lean against the new thesis, to (in time) create a valid anti-thesis that can say, yes that's basically right but we need to moderate it, make it more honest, more businesslike. What's left, for Republicans, is to find their Bill Clinton, their Dwight D. Eisenhower, their Woodrow Wilson or Grover Cleveland.

How long that takes is up to them. But for now they're going down. We, the people are moving ahead.

Tags: 20122012 electionLincolnNixonObamapolitical historypolitical philosophyrenewable energyRooseveltThe War Against Oil
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Dana Blankenhorn

Dana Blankenhorn

Dana Blankenhorn began his career as a financial journalist in 1978, began covering technology in 1982, and the Internet in 1985. He started one of the first Internet daily newsletters, the Interactive Age Daily, in 1994. He recently retired from InvestorPlace and lives in Atlanta, GA, preparing for his next great adventure. He's a graduate of Rice University (1977) and Northwestern's Medill School of Journalism (MSJ 1978). He's a native of Massapequa, NY.

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Comments 4

  1. Banner says:
    13 years ago

    That’s good, that’s really good to know about this post view. The post is written in very a good manner and I’m the admin of Search Active Directory just saying it entails many useful information for me.

    Reply
  2. Banner says:
    13 years ago

    That’s good, that’s really good to know about this post view. The post is written in very a good manner and I’m the admin of Search Active Directory just saying it entails many useful information for me.

    Reply
  3. SimpleStuff says:
    13 years ago

    Thank you for this POV and for the President’s speech. I had not heard the speech before, so I listened to all of it. It is wonderful.
    I am a life-long Republican who voted for Obama, because I decided the Rs have abandoned, even crushed, all the American principles I grew up with…all points which this speech touched on and your analysis has made clear.
    I find hope in what you say; I want to believe we as a people can turn things around. I will certainly do my part. The moneyed and powerful people seem to have won, however. So, I have been feeling as though all hope is lost for doing the things the President says we must do. I have bookmarked this page so I can return to it when I need a lift. I hope you can leave it up for a long time.
    The world has seemed upside down to me for the better part of 5 years or more. I never imagined in my wildest dreams that companies I worked for in the US would have years in a row of no wage increases. Now, even though this is a high-tech company, and I have 4 advanced degrees — 2 in high-tech — all employees are reluctantly thrown 1% increases and treated like dogs that the co. should not have to pay anything for. What’s more, I work with hundreds of workers from India and China and the Middle East that the company has brought to the States. We have plants in those countries, and I hear of training programs there that people in this country used to benefit from, but are no longer offered here because they are ‘too expensive’. This is just one example of how ‘upside down’ the world seems to have become.
    What your article talks to me about is getting things ‘right side up’ again. That seems to be what the President is talking about also. I thought I was alone in wishing for this. I feel a bit better that you think ‘we’ – you and I – are not alone. I feel a bit better that you say that history is on our side. I love the quotes of Teddy Roosevelt that the President made reference to. I hope he continues to make this case loud and clear throughout the campaign. A lot is riding on the choice we make this year. I hope it is the right one. This one that you and the President articulate would be mine.

    Reply
  4. SimpleStuff says:
    13 years ago

    Thank you for this POV and for the President’s speech. I had not heard the speech before, so I listened to all of it. It is wonderful.
    I am a life-long Republican who voted for Obama, because I decided the Rs have abandoned, even crushed, all the American principles I grew up with…all points which this speech touched on and your analysis has made clear.
    I find hope in what you say; I want to believe we as a people can turn things around. I will certainly do my part. The moneyed and powerful people seem to have won, however. So, I have been feeling as though all hope is lost for doing the things the President says we must do. I have bookmarked this page so I can return to it when I need a lift. I hope you can leave it up for a long time.
    The world has seemed upside down to me for the better part of 5 years or more. I never imagined in my wildest dreams that companies I worked for in the US would have years in a row of no wage increases. Now, even though this is a high-tech company, and I have 4 advanced degrees — 2 in high-tech — all employees are reluctantly thrown 1% increases and treated like dogs that the co. should not have to pay anything for. What’s more, I work with hundreds of workers from India and China and the Middle East that the company has brought to the States. We have plants in those countries, and I hear of training programs there that people in this country used to benefit from, but are no longer offered here because they are ‘too expensive’. This is just one example of how ‘upside down’ the world seems to have become.
    What your article talks to me about is getting things ‘right side up’ again. That seems to be what the President is talking about also. I thought I was alone in wishing for this. I feel a bit better that you think ‘we’ – you and I – are not alone. I feel a bit better that you say that history is on our side. I love the quotes of Teddy Roosevelt that the President made reference to. I hope he continues to make this case loud and clear throughout the campaign. A lot is riding on the choice we make this year. I hope it is the right one. This one that you and the President articulate would be mine.

    Reply

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I'm Dana Blankenhorn. I have covered the Internet as a reporter since 1983. I've been a professional business reporter since 1978, and a writer all my life.

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