Getting better all the time

Think of this as Volume 12, Number 50 of A-Clue.com, the online newsletter I've written since 1997. Enjoy.

For most of my life I have lived a little ahead of the curve.

I was early to the Internet, early to warning of the dot-bomb. I am a futurist by trade and inclination. Even in my mid-50s I care little for nostalgia. I'm always looking around the next corner.

The next corner looks pretty good.

(This illustration, and the one which follows, is from The New York Times' review of A Good Day, a childrens' book by the greatly-underestimated Kevin Henkes. Got a little tiny one on your Chistmas list? Amazon is open 24-7.)

While most people spent 2009 in the Great Recession, I managed to ride above the waves. My wife helped, but I found meaningful employment for the first time in a decade, with four blogs now owned by CBS, adding up to not only a tidy living but a fulfilling one that meets my strengths well.

My kids have both gotten better. One is in college in Texas right now, and I can hear the personal growth coming through the phone. She knows what she wants and what must be done to get it. My son starts college in January, a little more tentatively, living at home, but he is going to find his footing. And I can afford the bills.

While the Administration was pushing through its $800 billion stimulus plan I pushed through a more modest $150,000 plan. We added on to the house. It's now very energy efficient, and big enough so both my wife and I can work here without driving one another crazy. We're ready for what comes, even if that's a long, loving lifetime together, because the new bathroom is fitted with handicapped railings.

What does this mean. It means that, for most of you, 2010 shapes up as a pretty good year.

1. The economy is going to grow. Forget that talk of a "double dip" — most of the stimulus hasn't been spent. New markets are emerging in energy and biotech that will drive the next boom.
2. The government is competent. It's not just the President. Lower-level bureaucrats are coming from the academy and from local government, people who know their stuff. They're not in it to get for themselves, they're building resumes.
3. The world is bending our way again. America has allies again. We're no longer spending all our time defining enemies. That's going to mean savings down the road.

And of course there's Moore's Law. You can read my book on it. Positive change is accelerating. Research times are shortened, software is becoming increasingly mobile, the age of paper is receding into the past. All of which means amazing discoveries and opportunities lie ahead.

For the first time since the century began Americans can enter a new year with a feeling of hope. (I think we entered this last year with trepidation.) Sure there are challenges. Every one of the trends I mentioned are tentative.

1. Taking away the stimulus punch bowl is going to be difficult, especially in terms of fiscal policy. But the President has promised to lead in that effort, meaning there is no constituency for not taking action.
2. The Tea Party could make gains, but I really doubt it. You can't beat positive with negative, not when progress is becoming apparent. And like the hippies before them, the haties have no plans, only rhetoric.
3. There could be new wars, and the one we're in could still be lost. But again, doubtful. The aim of the new surge is limited to squeezing out Al Qaeda, maybe a few hundred people at most. Once that's done, perhaps as early as this summer, elements of the Taliban can be bought off and they can do what they want.

Let me put it another way. Everyone is into cynicism, which means it's time to sell. That's how markets work. You rise against a wall of worry and fall when everyone is a buyer. The dot-bomb appeared when irrational exuberance became rational. The real estate market collapsed after everyone had bought more home than they could possibly afford, except through finding a greater fool.

The false equivalence of CNN is not selling. People who are buying the news want you to believe in something. This does not mean we're all into Fox. But the answer for irrationality is rationality, and there's now a big market for that. I know this is true because everyone seems so irrational. That's a Clue that the market is about to turn.

I am not going to sit here and tell you what to buy or what to do. Your heart knows what you want to do. What I'm saying is dreams are out there waiting to be made true. Train your talent, whatever you think your highest self may be, and you will be rewarded.

That's the message for 2010.