How To See A Tsunami (From a Very Long Way Away)

The November election is going to be a tsunami.

That's distinct from a landslide.

A landslide happens when one party wins the endorsement of the people and the other side does not.

A tsunami happens when both sides have lost the trust of the people.

Tsunamis are marked by spectacular upsets, results that are completely unexpected. The House Speaker isn't re-elected, for instance. A tsunami is also bipartisan. In the 1994 election, Democrats actually took four seats from the Republicans – too bad they lost 58.

How can you tell a tsunami election from a very long way away? Easy. You look at party primaries.

Over the last few months an unprecedented number of incumbents have lost party primaries. Joe Lieberman is the best known. But on that very same day, Democrat Cynthia McKinney was beaten in a Georgia primary run-off. And Michigan Republican Joe Schwartz was knocked out by the more-conservative Tim Walberg.

More upsets may be on the way. Al Wynn faces a tough primary in Maryland. Lincoln Chaffee may lose his Rhode Island Senate seat. Daniel Akaka faces a tough primary in Hawaii.

What's going on? How does this prove a tsunami is in store?

What's going on is that members of both parties are demanding their candidates be more true to party principles. To Republicans, this means the principles of Ronald Reagan. For Democrats, this means not selling out to corporate interests.

It's happening everywhere. In South Carolina and North Carolina, self-styled “Reagan Republicans” are going after what they call RINOs, Republicans In Name Only. In Wyoming, incumbent Rep. Barbara Cubin barely survived a primary challenge. In Alabama, a majority-black district selected a white lesbian as its state representative.

The enormous advantages of incumbency seem to have almost disappeared. Despite all the money, despite all the gerrymandering, incumbents across the country are more endangered than at any time in ages.

That's a tsunami. (Ten points to whoever can identify this old weasel.)

A tsunami says, “throw the rascals out.” It's against the government, it's against the media, it's against the pundits and the pollsters, it's against anyone having anything to do with the way things are.

So ignore the polls, please. Polls don't tell you who is going to vote. And I think more people than ever before are lying to pollsters. I think more people are hiding from pollsters on cell phones. Folks are mad as hell and aren't going to take it anymore.

Democrats will gain an advantage on-balance, but Democratic incumbents should watch their backs. Hillary Clinton may even be up past 10.

And somewhere a Democrat given absolutely no chance, perhaps being out-spent 10-1, whose opponent is right now off in other districts campaigning for other candidates, is going to wake up a Congresscritter.

Proving once again it's the people's House.