Dana Blankenhorn

Real vs. Real

Analysts, and investors, are always fighting the last war.

The last war was the asset bubbles of the 1990s and 2000s. The first was in tech. The second was in housing.

Both fell after the bubble hit. Both times the government responded by juicing demand, first with the “forever wars,” then with a domestic stimulus and helicopter money.

Both times, this worked because the problem wasn’t related to what happened during the 1970s. Back then, resource inflation was to be feared. There was no substitute for oil. Now it’s just speculation and its aftermath.

The same kind of blow-off is happening now. There’s a fear that money will cost money, so speculators are pulling back, selling everything else to raise cash. (Cash is doing fine.) So far, it’s not nearly as bad as what came before. But fear is gripping the market because, this time, it’s accompanied by inflation.

Lessons of the Labor Shortage

There are three reasons for the current labor shortage. 

Two are signs of failure. One is a sign of success.

First, the failures.

The refusal of many employers, especially in the food service industry, to pay a living wage has long been a disgrace. They got away with it, in part, because America welcomed millions of immigrants, especially from Latin America. With the flow cut off, and other workers forced to fend for themselves for nearly a year, is it any wonder they won’t come back without more money?

This statement is controversial. I have friends who insist “people don’t want to work,” because they get more money not working. It’s not true, but my friends won’t budge. It might be because these friends are locked-in to their current positions, their current pay scale, their current lifestyle. I hate to say this of people I love, but there’s also some racism involved.

Living With Moore's Law: Past, Present and Future

This is actually the fourth edition of this book, which I have been writing and rewriting for 20 years now. 

Living With Moore's Law: Past, Present and Future is a collection of essays I have been working toward all my working life. It describes what Moore's Law is, how it developed, and how it extended into every area of computing through the 20th century.

Then it does more. I take the story into the present and explain just what we need to do, as a society, to take advantage of these miracles.

Then it does more. I have written an extra chapter about what comes next, the miracles that await us by harnessing the capabilities created by Moore's Law -- clouds, devices, and wireless networks. 

I consider it must reading for anyone interested in technology, in what it has done for us, what it's doing to us, and how we need to work with it to save the planet. 

Also, it's just $2.99. Free if you get it through Kindle Unlimited, Amazon's $10/month lending library. 

Cheap as chips.

Previous versions were offered as The Blankenhorn Effect in 2002, as Moore's Law: Better and Better, Faster and Faster in 2010, and as Technology's Big Bang: Yesterday, Today and Tomorrow with Moore's Law, in 2019. 

China Winning the Internet of Systems

Our capitalist system has a way of developing and defining standards that was effective in the 20^th century but may be ineffective early in the 21^st.

We wait for the market to create a need, and to create a leader. Then everyone else gangs up on the leader and creates what they call a standard.

Think of Betamax and VHS. Sony was the first mover, and the other manufacturers ganged up on it to take the consumer market. Or think of Apple and Microsoft in PC operating systems, where Microsoft, IBM, and their OEMs convinced most of the market to wait six full years for a working user interface Apple had introduced in 1984. The same thing is happening with Apple and Google in phones, although in this case Apple has managed to sponge off most of the profits and leave the OEMs toting Google’s laundry and holding the bag.

But there are areas of technology where that process doesn’t work, where only the government can create and enforce standards because the players are too selfish and diffuse to accomplish it themselves.

It’s why the Internet is the way it is. I was covering the story at the time it happened, so I know.

Revolt of the Viewer

The biggest life change in decades is now beginning. We are leaving an age of bundled, curated video content and entering an age of self-selected, self-curated content.

The unbundling of cable, the decision of millions to go “over the top” and choose instead to get their entertainment directly from the Internet, is one of the great sea changes of this decade, driven by rising costs and (perhaps more important) a shortage of time. Lost may be serendipity, the decision to watch things because they are on.

Today, for instance, I watched George Englund’s The Shoes of the Fisherman, a 1968 MGM film in which Anthony Quinn plays a radical cross between Pope John Paul II and Pope Francis, renouncing communism and wealth at the same time in the name of secular decency. Given that it was made early in the pontificate of Paul VI (John Gielgud gets one scene playing a nice version of Paul, then dies to make way for the plot) it is many decades ahead of its time. (Quinn’s character is even proclaimed a cardinal from Lvov, which is in western Ukraine, and a starving China drives the plot.) But it’s not what I would be watching if I had the whole world to choose from.

Days of Apps

Think of this as Volume 16, Number 28 of A-Clue.com, the online newsletter I've written since 1997. Enjoy.

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In 2012 the software industry is like an iceberg. Most of it is under the water.

Not underwater, mind you. Under the water.

That's because the world of “applications” is over. It's all about the apps now, brutha. And no one in the app business has yet gone public. The smart VC guys and private equity people are putting tons of money into the space, so there's no need to go public, no need to give the public investor a taste.

It's like the social boom. You'll know the bust has started when one of these outfits starts looking for suckers on NASDAQ.

Doesn't mean there's no there, there. There is. I found that out Monday when I went to a “MeetUp” for Techcrunch.com at the Sweetwater Brewery, a few miles from my home.

The place was packed. Cars were parked around the corner and down the next street. (They could do it because this is a warehouse district where everyone else goes home around 5 PM.) There were well over 3,000 people there. Mostly male, mostly young, mostly white. But not exclusively. I was also pleased to find two people who rode bikes there. A guy my own age who admitted he'd taken the train to a nearby transit stop, and a younger guy who'd ridden 8 miles in rush-hour traffic. 

Tomorrow's News Today: Google Chromebook #Fail

When I traveled to China in 2009 I had an HP Netbook with me.

It was a failure. It only had 2 Gigabytes of internal storage, which within a few months wasn't even enough to run Windows (which updates constantly). I bought a 32 Gbyte stick for it, but as that wasn't the primary drive Windows never recognized its full capacity.

Now Google has, through Samsung and Acer, introduced Chromebooks that solve all those problems.  And they, too, have Fail written all over them. 

The problem is not the operating system, or the dependence on online updating. (Ostatic seems to have a problem with that). The hardware itself is first-rate, with 32 Gigabytes of chip memory inside the box and a Linux that won't swallow it all, leaving plenty of room for applications.

The problem is the basic design.

The Big Opportunity in Home Servers

A lot of people are writing today that Apple has killed the home PC  with its iCloud and iOS announcements.

They haven't. The PC has been dieing for years. As a client.

But as a server? Not so much.

I know that the long-term talk about “media servers”  has proven to be a dead end. I'm talking about an opportunity that has existed for nearly a decade, which I first began labeling “the world of always-on.”

I'm talking of single-chip, specialty devices that can provide automation, security, inventory and medical services to our aging population.

• Devices placed in-line with lights, kitchen appliances, and any other system which uses energy, which can monitor the conditions of those devices, turning them on-and-off in response to a program.

• Single-chip cameras that can be turned on remotely, or via a program, to provide constant security.

• RFID chips placed on goods and even foodstuffs that can monitor the inventory and location of what you got.

• Medical devices that can monitor and report on health without outside intervention.

What Should Microsoft Do Now?

For some reason – maybe it's the fact that Microsoft now sells at the P/E of a medium-sized bank – the company is getting all sorts of advice.

Some of the dumbest advice comes from ReadWriteWeb, which thinks Microsoft Needs to Open Source Something Big But What?

Wrong question. Open source is not some magic elixir. It's a specific tool with a specific purpose. When you want collaboration you offer up the code. In the mid-2000s, this meant code you just wanted to shove over the side. More recently it's been important projects you needed others to commit to in order for them to succeed.

After the Carrier Death Spiral, Google

A “carrier death spiral” is what some are calling AT&T's acquisition of T-Mobile. (Others disagree.)

The merger raises the spectre of a renewed monopoly (as though the former SBC hadn't moved decisively in that direction years ago). The deal will take a year to clear although AT&T officials insist they have the stroke with the bureaucracy to get it done.

And they do. That's the problem.

I can't tell you how many trillions of dollars American consumers have paid over the last decades, over and above their real value, for wired and wireless bits, thanks to monopolistic practices we foresaw in the mid-1990s, tried to deal with, and then saw politics unravel.

The whole idea of the government, from the beginning, was to separate the infrastructure from the service. Thanks to a compliant Bush Administration, and Clinton appointees who were outmaneuvered, the Bell operating companies overthrew that deal. This led to the merger mania which now sees us with only three “choices” – AT&T, Verizon and Comcast – for most people just two of the three, and for others just one.