Dana Blankenhorn

The Ghost of the Eternal Now

I’ve been a reporter for over 40 years, and I’m still angry at the same thing that upset me in journalism school. (That's me on my first journalism job, wondering why someone is taking my picture.)

This is the attitude of an eternal now. It’s driven by this old chestnut – a journalist is someone who works for someone who buys ink by the barrel. The key to that sentence is the phrase “who works for someone.” Journalists are supposed to leave their minds and hearts at the door of the newsroom.

Reporters are taught to have no sense of history, or of the future. Mainly we’re taught to pretend we know nothing, and everything we’re told is equally valid. As a result, most reporting has no context, and we can’t call out stupid when it’s right in front of us.

That’s how Trump gets away with it. Any reporter who likens what he’s doing to Jefferson Davis or Adolph Hitler is accused of malpractice by agents of stupid at The New York Times. We’re just supposed to print what he says and repeat what he does, like good little stenographers. Then let Bret Stephens or Ross Douthat tell us what it means. Everything’s fine.

It’s even worse in business, which is my beat. Because we are taught to ignore the broad sweep of business history, we send readers down blind alleys. We pretend that making cookies is as cutting edge as writing software.

The past and the future have always been there in front of us. It was clear in 1979 that oil was taking over from manufacturing, but people reported from Detroit then as if that city could be saved. It was also clear that oil was a boom-and-bust business, but I was told to report from Houston that the boom would go on forever.

The 2020 Game

The Tell on what will happen in 2020 came in late July of 2019.

Trump’s most loyal lieutenants, attorney general William Barr and Treasury Secretary Stephen Mnuchin (far right), issued existential threats against the Cloud Czars. Under Trump’s orders.

The Cloud Czars, for those unfamiliar with my current work at InvestorPlace, are Microsoft, Amazon.Com, Google, Apple and Facebook. As technology has come to dominate the economy, the Czars have come to dominate technology.

They’re the Cloud Czars because the tool which dominates technology is cloud computing. It combines parallel processing with virtual operating systems and open source techniques to hold down costs.

The 1979 Game

An industry’s takeover of politics tends to be defensive.

It happens when that industry seems to be riding high. It acts against leaders whom neutral observers may credit with that rise.

I covered this story 40 years ago. In Houston.

The oil industry did great in 1979, despite Jimmy Carter’s cardigan sweater. Saudi Arabia, more Texas’ ally than America’s, had proven the economic power of resources with its 1973 embargo. Iranian mullahs believed they could use the same economic force against America. Oil understood this as a threat to its interests. Carter saw oil’s profits as leverage he could use against the Iranians.

Tolerance, Technology, and the American Hitler

Donald J. Trump is the closest thing to Hitler America has yet produced.

He is the crisis. In becoming the primary object and fascination of the world, Trump has revealed both his character and that of everyone supporting him.

He is a racist. He is a fascist. He seeks dominion over the world only to seize its wealth for himself and his friends. His allies use power only as a tool against other religions, or other races, or against strawmen (and women) of their own devising. They beat the chains of their followers into swords.

We know this, now. In the summer of 2019, many believe there’s nothing to be done, that his final victory is inevitable. They see Democrats as feckless and divided. More important they see technology as Trump’s ally.

It’s this last point I come to challenge. While there are features in technology that assist any surveillance state, and the war of all against all, technology as an industry is the greatest boon to human liberty yet created.

The reason, as I’ve written here many times, is that human capital is now the gating factor to economic growth. It’s the human mind’s ability to conceive of new problems, and of ways to solve those problems, that delivers economic growth. Access to capital, and to other minds that might execute on plans, becomes a multiplying factor.

But first comes the idea. First comes the experiment. First comes science, and engineering. Later you need money, and marketing. All these things are maximized where human minds are free, where capital can choose its own home, and where people can choose their own leaders.

Capitalism. Democracy. Liberty. The more of these you have, within an ordered system, the more growth you have. It’s the need for order, for restraint, that has many people confused into thinking China’s rise at America’s expense is inevitable.

Fall of the House of Oil

There is no energy shortage. The sun shines. The wind blows. The tides roll. We live on a molten rock.

At the start of this decade, when I first began covering the War Against Oil, and changed the sub-head of this blog to reflect that, I believed the key to victory was bringing enough investment to the space, public and private, so that the cost of renewable energy would fall below that of fossil fuels.

It’s happened.

Crossover happened just as I expected, in 2016. The cost of energy from solar panels is now lower than that from burning coal. The cost of energy from windmills is now falling below that of burning natural gas.

The only thing keeping fossil fuels alive in the big utility model is the sunk cost of infrastructure. When that proves unreliable, as it did in Puerto Rico a few years ago, it’s replaced by solar power, batteries, and micro-grid technology, just as Al Gore predicted two decades ago. 

FUD the Free Web

It shocks me how many tech writers and self-proclaimed liberals have joined the recent attack on the Free Web.

That’s what Facebook is. That’s what Google is.

They’re the free web.

They don’t charge you for using them. They’re free. Access isn’t free, and neither is most of the information the Web provides. Most of the news today is hidden behind paywalls, available to subscribers only.

But Google and Facebook are free.

The attackers say that on these services “you are the product.” They like to say that because they can afford the cost of subscribing to all the things which interest them.

Google and Facebook have built over $1.3 trillion in market cap, and almost $200 billion per year in annual revenue, with an advertising business model. They won the market and invested their money in building what we today call the cloud. Unlike the phone companies and everyone else, they invested ahead of their growth. Facebook put $1 billion/quarter into its server farms before it had the revenue to back it up. These are risk-takers. They’re what capitalism is all about. They’re Amurica.

This Medium Cries Freedom

Throughout the decade now ending there has been a steadily growing drumbeat of elite opinion to the effect that this medium enables tyranny.

I blame Trump. The Russian manipulation of Facebook made Trump possible. Now tech must live down that legacy.

It means every collection of private data, whether by corporations, government or hackers, whatever the motive, is seen as evidence we need to throw our computers out the window. Every new technology meant to thwart abuse, meanwhile, is seen as a threat to human liberty.

Tech can’t win.

Technology can, in the hands of a ruthless dictator, enable terrible abuses. But there’s a limit.

The Sun Shines, The Wind Blows, and Watch Houston Become Detroit

Nearly a decade ago, having been tossed to the curb by ZDNet for calling out a “privacy” lobbyist as an industry shill, I changed the headline of this blog to focus on renewable energy.

“There is no energy shortage. The sun shines, the wind blows, the tides roll, we live on a molten rock.”

Tidal and geothermal energy have yet to make major contributions to our energy mix, but the Sun does indeed shine and the wind does indeed blow. More important is the cheapest form of renewable energy, efficiency, and which is always before us.

Today, U.S. energy demand is just passing its year 2000 peak. This is true despite Gross Domestic Product, the economy’s production of goods and services, rising from $13.131 trillion in 2000 to last year’s $18.566 trillion.  That’s 41% more economic activity with no increase in energy use.

Human Capital and the 1980 Game

In 2020, we will be 12 years removed from the first political triumph of technology, the generational election of Barack Obama. All his progress is now being undone, much as a generation ago oil’s gains were threatened by Jimmy Carter and his cardigan sweater.

As we prepare to play the 1980 Game the question becomes, who is Ronald Reagan now? (It’s usually phrased, “Who Can Beat Trump?”) The answer lies in what drives our economy today, and in what drove it then.

I remain confident in the ultimate triumph of Democracy because, today, human capital is the gating factor to economic growth.

Getting Around

I have had the same bicycle for almost 40 years.

It’s a road bike with a Romic frame, hand-made by a Hungarian refugee. The derailleurs are by Campagnolo, the gearing Shimano.

It’s very nice. It cost me three teeth. A car ran into me, crushing my old bike, in early 1981, and this was offered by my mechanic as the replacement.

I mention this only to show I have experience in getting around an urban place without gasoline.

My strangest finding over that time is that Houston is a better city for bicycling than Atlanta, if you’re trying to go someplace. That’s because Houston is flat. Hills cost energy and limit the distance you can travel comfortably.