Dana Blankenhorn

The Fight in My Front Yard

I’m leaving next week for Europe.

Perhaps the most important day on my trip will be September 28, when I’m due to see my daughter in Vienna.

It’s not just important because I love her. It’s important that I check in with her regarding the most important issue facing mankind, climate change.

My daughter has been studying most of her life to be on the front lines of the battle. But what I’m finding is that the key to this battle may be right back here, in what was her front yard. If you want to know whether the climate crisis can be overcome or not, that’s where to start.

My daughter’s focus has been on urban animal policy. It sounds arcane, but it’s not. Whether or not we admit it, our cities and suburbs are part of nature, just as our forests and beaches are. They are ecosystems, where plants and animals live or die depending on our actions.

In Atlanta, that battle is being lost.

Twilight of the Cloud Czars

In 2019 five companies dominate the global economy.

I call them the Cloud Czars.

They are Microsoft, Apple, Amazon, Google, and Facebook.

These companies have a combined market cap of over $4 trillion. The smallest of them, Facebook, is worth more than AT&T and the Walt Disney Co. combined.

The Cloud Czars dominate retailing. They dominate media. They dominate computing and communications. According to politicians of both the left and the right, this means they’re illegal monopolists and should be broken up.

This idea is dumber than anything Donald Trump ever said.

One Nation. At War. With Itself

In August of 2019, the United States is a nation at war with itself.

We are at war with fundamental changes that must occur if the country, and the world, are to be saved from the Industrial Revolution.

We’re also at war with the essentials of economic growth in our time.

As I have written many times, the gating factor in technology is human capital. Trained, eager, free minds, willing to think the previously unthinkable, to model it and make it reality. This is where money is made today.

The more such people you have, the fewer of the other kind, the more money you make. The more freedom these people have, the greater their access to money, to new ideas, and to one another, the more your society prospers. This is Israel’s secret sauce.

Resources don’t matter. Machines don’t matter. Muscle doesn’t matter. Minds matter, more than anything.

Fall of the House of Oil

There is no energy shortage. The sun shines. The wind blows. The tides roll. We live on a molten rock.

At the start of this decade, when I first began covering the War Against Oil, and changed the sub-head of this blog to reflect that, I believed the key to victory was bringing enough investment to the space, public and private, so that the cost of renewable energy would fall below that of fossil fuels.

It’s happened.

Crossover happened just as I expected, in 2016. The cost of energy from solar panels is now lower than that from burning coal. The cost of energy from windmills is now falling below that of burning natural gas.

The only thing keeping fossil fuels alive in the big utility model is the sunk cost of infrastructure. When that proves unreliable, as it did in Puerto Rico a few years ago, it’s replaced by solar power, batteries, and micro-grid technology, just as Al Gore predicted two decades ago. 

The Crash of 2019

Right now, in early April of 2019, the U.S. economy seems to be in great shape.

Inflation is minimal. Money is cheap. Unemployment is down. Wages are rising.

Here is why I think this is all going to collapse, and that right soon.

Deflation.

As I have said here many times, technology creates deflation. Deflation is the primary subject of my Moore’s Law book, which I’m getting ready to rewrite for 2020.

To understand deflation in action, look in your hand.

The Demand of 2020: Law and Order

Regulations are the guardrails of corporate law.

They kick in before people are hurt. They’re usually aimed at corporations, not individuals. Everyone is punished by the paperwork. The penalties come in the form of fines.

Regulation is the best protection business can have.

When regulation isn’t imposed by government, it comes in other forms. It comes in insurance requirements. It comes from the plaintiff’s bar. Fines come in the form of differing rates to protect truck fleets, different prices for handling transactions, and in jury awards.

World War III, The Internet War

World War III is an Internet war. It has been ongoing for over a decade.

When the conflict was between countries like Pakistan and Ireland, or Ukraine and Russia, we could afford to ignore it.

Then it came to our own shores. November 8, 2016 was this war’s Pearl Harbor.

Yet we still haven’t reacted, because once the enemy is in the tent the media thinks going after them is friendly fire.

There’s nothing friendly about it.

Sure, there are efforts underway at Google and Facebook to boost “real news” and dissuade “fake news.” Yes, there are efforts underway in Congress to control online political spending. Yes, there is the Mueller probe.

But these are nothing. We still see the Internet War as something we can stop with higher firewalls, or bigger budgets.

We can’t.

2019: Crime in the Suites

My adult millennial children are both conservative, but in the nicest possible way.

They have ethics. They expect correct behavior from authority. When they don’t see it, they want it punished, not with a wrist slap, but with jail time.

I agree, and 2019 will mark the start of a process toward getting it. Justice is slow, but it is certain.

If 2018 was the year when crime was stripped naked, with the MeToo movement, the Trump treason, and corporate theft, 2019 will be the first year of retribution.

This becomes certain when you look at the economy. The next year may be the most readily predicted, indeed eagerly anticipated, recession of my lifetime.

Nature in the City

One of my big gripes with the present time, with freedom and democracy on the line, is that it delays consideration of other important issues.

Like that of nature in the city.

We like to pretend that nature has been tamed in the city, that it has no place save what we carve out for it. This is false.

During this century, as exurbs have extended their tentacles to the deepest woods and the tallest mountains, we have seen an unprecedented, seldom remarked-upon, rush of animals to American cities. When I was raising chickens 20 years ago I only had to worry about opossums and raccoons. Now we have coyotes, hawks and falcons. We also have bunny rabbits, deer, armadillo and feral hogs roaming the local landscape.

Re-evaluating J.P. Morgan

The Greatest Progressive of American history was J.P. Morgan. But he wouldn’t be one today.

Let me explain.

Businesses have always talked up the idea of progress, of change. It’s at the heart of the progressive idea, a constant, incremental improvement. Progressives believe in things getting better, and the way they usually get better is by something better coming along. Better products, better services, and better ways of doing things. Today these are all byproducts of competition.

They weren’t always.

Morgan was active from the Civil War through the first decade of the 20^th century. He is usually portrayed as either a colossus or an octopus. He was the man behind the “trusts.” Trusts were evil. He was Teddy Roosevelt’s great nemesis.

But was he? We know the men were close. Morgan and Roosevelt were both Republicans.

What is undeniably true is that, during Morgan’s time, America and the world were short on capital and on basic infrastructure. We couldn’t afford to have several rail lines serving the same point, or several telegraph wires serving the same office. That would mean other points and other offices got no service.