Dana Blankenhorn

The Cloud Crash of 2020

This fall represents the end of a full decade since I lost my last “tech reporting” gig at ZDNet and started focusing on finance.

I’ve made a lot of money. The value of my stock portfolio has tripled. I’ve found a good niche with InvestorPlace that has eased me toward retirement. I only work because I want to. Social Security would pay me more right now. But writing isn’t a job. It’s living, it’s breathing. If you can get paid for it, that means people are reading you and benefitting from it.

I’m very, very fortunate.

Most of my last decade has been spent following the clouds. Cloud computing, which combines distributed processing, virtualization, open source, and scale, has proven itself as the 21^st century’s first great technology revolution.

Moore’s Law of Health

One topic in the coming re-write of my Moore’s Law book, now called Moore’s Law Explains it All, involves what I call Moore’s Law of Politics.

Moore’s Second Law, the rising capital cost of chip making, offsets Moore’s Law itself. Moore’s Law of Software, its value increasing with use, offsets Moore’s Law of Content, because most content doesn’t gain in value once you read, hear or see it.

At the same time Moore’s Law of Health, the fact that technology lets us live longer, creates a negative in Moore’s Law of Politics.

Political decision-making is stuck in the past.

I got a reminder of this during my recent trip to Heidelberg. I met a young Vietnamese mathematician. He was about the same age as my own son, 28.

I asked him about the Vietnam War. To him it’s an historical relic, like our Civil War. Even his father wasn’t impacted by it. It’s something from his grandfather’s time.

Apotheosis of Nationalism

An apotheosis is the glorification of something to a divine level, the treatment of a human or institution as a god.

It’s a climax state. As with a swamp that has become a forest due to the steady deposit of leaves, it’s unstable. It’s the last step before a fall. Anyone and anything can become Icarus. Our doom is sealed when we get too close to the Sun.

Nationalism was born in the 18^th century. Ours was the first new nation. Nationalism has dominated political organization since the 19^th century, because it delivered leaders beyond those of royal blood. The reign of Louis XVI, then, was an apotheosis for the imperial model. The tumbrel began the end for the divine right of kings.

We’re now at the apotheosis of the nation state. Everyone is now part of a nation state. We can’t conceive of any other structure. Nation states, their leaders, and their philosophies send their people off to war for the glorification of “the people.” It’s a continuing competition for resources, both human and physical. Nationalism is the ultimate zero-sum game. For my nation to prosper, other nations and people must suffer.

The 2020s: The Machine Internet

(This is Part II of a three-part series on technology in the 2020s, for publication while I’m at the Heidelberg Laureate Forum in Germany.)

The 2010s were the decade of clouds and devices.

But it was done through human intermediaries. People did the input and the output came from people.

Even if you’re talking to your computer, you’re still in there directing it. Our interfaces in 2019 are, in that way, not that different from what they were in 1979. Fingers are replacing mice, voices are replacing keystrokes, but you’re still making the decisions.

That’s what I think will change most in the 2020s.

It all seems frightfully late to me. I wrote about this stuff as The World of Always On as far back as 2002. Then again, I wrote A Guide to Field Computing in 1993, before the iPhone was a gleam in Steve Jobs’ eye.

The Machine Internet has been delayed by the human element. Right now, most “analysts” still assume this will keep it from happening. They’re pushed out the date for self-driving cars from 2019 to 2029. They think autonomous technology must be perfect to be useful.

It only needs to be better than you.

Twilight of the Cloud Czars

In 2019 five companies dominate the global economy.

I call them the Cloud Czars.

They are Microsoft, Apple, Amazon, Google, and Facebook.

These companies have a combined market cap of over $4 trillion. The smallest of them, Facebook, is worth more than AT&T and the Walt Disney Co. combined.

The Cloud Czars dominate retailing. They dominate media. They dominate computing and communications. According to politicians of both the left and the right, this means they’re illegal monopolists and should be broken up.

This idea is dumber than anything Donald Trump ever said.

The Era of Systems

Every decade since I began writing has delivered a new era in technology.

The 1970s was the start of the PC era. The 1980s saw the local networking era. The 1990s saw the rise of the Internet. The 2000s was the decade of mobility. This decade has been that of the cloud.

The 2020s will be the era of systems.

We have been talking around this for years. We talk about the Internet of Things. We talk about artificial intelligence, adding it to the cloud to create FOG computing. We talk about blockchain.

We talk about these technologies as silos, but that’s not the way technology works. As I have been writing since publishing Moore’s Lore  in 2001, the exponential improvements driven by chips go into many directions. They pile atop one another, they reinforce one another like electric waves.

PCs combined chips with a user interface. Local Area Networks combined PCs with techniques derived from telephony. The Internet takes these LAN techniques global. Mobility again combined chips with new user interfaces, eliminating peripherals. The cloud era is built on open source software, standardized chips, and the same networking used in the Internet.

How the Web Killed the Media

The great tragedy of our time, the tragedy that led to Trump, is content’s loss of control over its own business models.

When I began writing the weekly newsletter that became this blog, 20 years ago, the threat of this loss was a primary theme. I asked newspapers and magazines “how hungry are you?” suggesting that if they turned advertisers into business partners, and earned commissions on sales, they could prosper on this medium.

Advertising is just a means to an end. Newspapers sell space for ads, and ads start readers down a sales funnel. Sales are what the buyers of advertisements want. If online publishers could deliver sales, I thought, they would earn all their business partners’ marketing budget.

I saw even then how the Internet could deliver a store’s entire experience, from advertising, through marketing and sales, through the transaction to service and support. It was the publishing opportunity of a lifetime.

No One Took It

China Winning the Internet of Systems

Our capitalist system has a way of developing and defining standards that was effective in the 20^th century but may be ineffective early in the 21^st.

We wait for the market to create a need, and to create a leader. Then everyone else gangs up on the leader and creates what they call a standard.

Think of Betamax and VHS. Sony was the first mover, and the other manufacturers ganged up on it to take the consumer market. Or think of Apple and Microsoft in PC operating systems, where Microsoft, IBM, and their OEMs convinced most of the market to wait six full years for a working user interface Apple had introduced in 1984. The same thing is happening with Apple and Google in phones, although in this case Apple has managed to sponge off most of the profits and leave the OEMs toting Google’s laundry and holding the bag.

But there are areas of technology where that process doesn’t work, where only the government can create and enforce standards because the players are too selfish and diffuse to accomplish it themselves.

It’s why the Internet is the way it is. I was covering the story at the time it happened, so I know.

The Truth About The VA “Scandal”

Think of this as Volume 17, Number 21 written since 1997. Enjoy.

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The VA “Scandal” is considered one of the biggest of the Obama Presidency. Commenters from Andrew Sullivan to Jon Stewart bring it up constantly.

But the truth is that this isn't really a scandal at all. Not in the sense you're thinking, a deliberate theft of public funds by someone. It's scandalous, sure. But there's a difference.

At the heart of the scandal is the computing systems used by the military and the VA.

Graphene and the Nature of Change

Think of this as Volume 17, Number 9 of A-Clue.com, the online newsletter I've written since 1997. Enjoy.

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Change can be slow, and change can be sudden.

Those who practice the theory of “oh noes,” the idea that it's all about to go pear-shaped, either see slow change that can't be undone, or a sudden change that others see as unlikely.

The people I meet on Seekingalpha.com, the ones who are certain that we're about to go into another Great Depression, believe in sudden change. Those who talk about climate change tend to see slow change that can't be undone.

But most of the time, disaster does not strike. And sudden change can be good as well as bad.

This is one of the great things about being a science reporter, the idea that someone, somewhere, might suddenly come up with a mighty idea, one that will drive out big problems at a stroke.