Dana Blankenhorn

That 2002 Feeling

The last tech crash began in 2000 and I was in the center of it, a mid-career writer with a specialty called Internet Commerce.

That year saw denial and bargaining.

The next year saw anger and depression.

It was only in 2002 that acceptance came.

We know what followed. Talented programmers worked on open source projects and standards bodies created what became the Cloud. When proprietary advantage became worthless, and there seemed there was nothing to do, people worked together with technical goals in mind rather than just financial ones.

It was a slow build. In 2002 my gross income was zero dollars. In 2003 it was zero dollars. I got interested in what’s now the Machine Internet, which I christened the World of Always On, and in 2004 I finally made a few dollars. The next year I was asked to cover Open Source, and my career took off. For a time.

I’ve mentioned before how, in every photo of a stock market crash the people in it look similar. Similar age, similar backgrounds. They’re different people. Those who watched the 1987 crash were different from those who saw the 2000 crash, different from those who saw 2008, different from those who saw 2022.

Where Computing Happens

I met my first computer in 1976, in the basement of Herman Brown Hall, on the campus of Rice University in Houston.

The computing happened in a big room, separated from me by a window. I passed a stack of punch cards, tied with a rubber band, through the window. They came back along with my output. Which usually said the program had died on Line 3.

By the time I got out of journalism school, two years later, computing was moving to desktops. A neighbor bought a $20,000 Cromemco machine that could run 3 terminals. She hired friends to work at the terminals, transcribing court records. I think they got 50 cents a page. Computing had come home.

2023: Look on the Bright Side

If we’re to get through 2023 alive, we’re going to have to take joy where we find it.

We certainly didn’t find it in journalism this year. Editors on every beat have taken to writing aggressive, clickbait headlines, designed to provoke feelings of anger and depression. They do it because they’re rewarded by the algorithms of a failing Internet business model. They do it to boost traffic.

This is even true on my business beat, where every negative headline has a positive corollary. Rising prices create incentives and profits for producers. Rising interest rates mean savers can finally catch a break. Layoffs create opportunity for other employers while the job market remains tight.

The headlines are misleading because they take just one side. They make it appear the economy and markets are terrible even though the former is not.

Positives of a Tech Recession

Despite some stunning investment losses, I’m enjoying the latest tech recession.

No one likes a recession, but sometimes it’s like spring cleaning, necessary to clear the excess. There were a lot of zombie technologies, zombie companies and zombie assumptions that have been overrun since the Fed decided that money should cost money and there should be less of it around.

Web3, the metaverse, and crypto were all fake from the jump. Advocates for streaming and podcasting didn’t understand that the gating factor is time, not money. A lot of companies were selling themselves based solely on sales growth, ignoring the need for profit.

This means there’s now opportunity, in the form of talent, for new ideas that will power the economy forward. The main trends I described in 2019 – the end of oil, the Machine Internet, and DNA as a Programming Language – they’re still on. But there’s a lot more, too.

The Time Is Now

Here is what 45 years of studying business cycles has taught me.

Now is the time to work on your next great startup.

Right now. When the whole world is collapsing around us. When old business models are failing. When everyone is worried about their job, or about to lose it.

Look at the opportunities. I detailed them three years ago. The end of oil. The machine Internet. DNA as a programming language.

These boil down to renewable energy, control systems, and medicine.

The Three Big Challenges Boiled Into One

Nearly three years ago, after attending the Heidelberg Laureate Forum honoring great mathematicians and computer experts, I wrote a three part series on the big technologies of this decade:

• The End of Oil 
• The Machine Internet 
• DNA as a Programming Language 

This is a good time to revisit the trends. A recession is also the best time to start a new tech company. Incumbents are faltering and you get a clean sheet of paper to write the future on.

Junk Tech

Imagination is in a constant competition with Moore’s Law.

Imagination often loses.

Moore’s Law makes many things possible. Not all these things are worth doing.

I call things that aren’t worth doing junk tech.

Bitcoin is junk tech. Web3 is junk tech. Blockchain is junk tech. So is the “metaverse,” in the sense that we should all live in a virtual world rather than the real one.

Good applications can come from junk. The home shopping service I supported in 1984 became an Electronic Data Interchange (EDI) format. The map CD-ROM I worked on in 1989 became a format for geographic data. Creating lemonade from lemons is always a great opportunity.

Bad News is Good News

A few weeks ago, I noted how the “bad news” at Snap, Twitter and other social media companies can easily be interpreted as good news.. If people are no longer interested in rage tweeting, they could be becoming more thoughtful. They could be reserving judgment. They could have found real lives.

The same is true, doubly so, with the recent “problems” at chip stocks like Nvidia, Micron and Qualcomm. Prices for commodity chips are falling. The “chip shortage” is easing. In the near term it means lower profits for big chip companies. Sell, sell, sell.

But it also means falling prices and more supply for companies that use chips. It means car prices could start declining. It means the Machine Internet can get a fresh start.

Face to Face

It’s said that the rise of remote work will clear out cities.

While it’s true that set projects can be done on set schedules, and that office work can be done anywhere, it’s not true that cities are doomed.

I got a taste of that yesterday.

It was a little thing. A meetup in a bar for biochemistry entrepreneurs, students, and financiers. Maybe 50 people showed up, in 80 degree heat, on a patio near downtown Atlanta. It’s one of dozens of such meetings, in all sorts of disciplines, taking place every month around Atlanta’s science hubs. Money meets ideas informally, and while nothing happens at once a process moves forward.

Side Effect

I should be dead. So should my wife. So should most Baby Boomers.

In my case, statins saved me. I have naturally high cholesterol, 373 when I got it checked in 2000. My dad (right) had a heart attack at age 47, a decade before this picture was taken.

Statins didn’t exist when  dad needed them, but today they’re generic, cheap. Same with my hypertension drug, an Angiotensin Reuptake Blocker (ARB). Without it my blood pressure was erratic in my 40s. In my late 60s it’s steady.

It’s not just my life. My mom went blind in her 50s, from retinal detachments. I just had my second retinal operation. It took 5 minutes. I was back at my desk the next day.

The good news is that Norman Lear and Mel Brooks are still alive. The bad news is, so are Rupert Murdoch and Donald Trump.