Dana Blankenhorn

Jassy’s Gotta Go

I’ve seen enough. Amazon.Com CEO Andy Jassy’s gotta go.

Jassy became CEO 18 months ago, after spending most of two decades at the Amazon Web Services (AWS) unit.

Jassy was fine at AWS. He’s out of his depth now.

The problem is he has no vision. He’s a numbers guy. He runs the company for Wall Street, which is precisely the wrong way to run it. It needs to be run for the customer.

The problem with Amazon’s store is familiar to anyone with a working knowledge of business history. The store, which is by far the biggest part of the business, is fighting with itself. It’s a battle between Amazon’s own procurement and its third party sellers. Jassy blindly follows the sellers because they’re bringing in most of the sales.

But they’re taking the store down. The user experience sucks. The third parties are gaming Amazon’s algorithm, against one another, against the customer, against the store itself.

Tech and its Workers

One of the biggest mistakes I made in my journalism career lay in assuming tech companies would have the back of their workers, because they depend on human talent rather than muscle. (The picture is from a book on computer coding.)

The tech oligarchs who made their piles in the last decade have become just like other oligarchs. No worse, but certainly no better.

The latest round of layoffs is especially egregious. It’s not how many were let go. They were mostly the pandemic overhang, an adjustment as life returns to “normal.” It’s how they were done, and who was targeted. Firing via e-mail? No warning for families or teams? It sends the message that people don’t matter.

To the oligarchs they don’t. Elon Musk, Marc Andreessen, Peter Thiel – they’re one-way guys. They care about themselves, no one else. They don’t really care about technology, or what it can do. All they care about is how much money it is making for them right now.

There was, once, a difference between Wall Street and Silicon Valley. The wealth creation of the last decade eliminated the difference. Wall Street doesn’t care about the long-term, about the need to keep investing in the new across the chasm of a recession, or the talent that is tech’s raw material. It cares about this quarter, about today’s trade.

What’s funny is that the horrors now being visited on the Valley are 10 times worse on Wall Street. Layer after layer of management has been eliminated, as the industry has gone online. More and more of its wealth is in fewer and fewer hands, and those hands care nothing about the people who made the wealth. Just as they don’t care about the technologists of the Valley.

Wintel (1990-2023): Death of a Monopoly

An era ended this week, as the control over technology Microsoft and Intel held with Microsoft Windows and Intel x86 chips crashed and burned.

From the launch of Windows 3.0 in 1990 to this last week, there was an assumption that Wintel, as the two were called, were where computing happened. No more. OEM sales of Windows fell by a third, and so did Intel’s x86 chip sales.

Client computing has moved from your desktop to the palm of your hand. An iPhone or high-end Android device can cost over $1,000 but you don’t need a manual to use them. They’re intuitive. When they fail, you get another, and all your software follows you from the cloud.

Microsoft was ready for this. They became a Cloud Czar during the 2010s, building a huge network of scaled data centers using open source software and cheap hardware. Intel supplied the cloud, and its data center business beat expectations last quarter, but it was not ready for the change. Its stock fell another 10%, and the company is now worth barely one-fourth the new chip leader, Nvidia.

Righteous War

America hasn’t fought many righteous wars.

In the 19^th century the Civil War was righteous. Everything else was conquest. The “winning of the west” was a slow motion genocide. We took the Southwest from Mexico. We took the Philippines and Puerto Rico from Spain. We teach it as democracy, as freedom. It was empire.

World War II was righteous. In retrospect, I’m glad we fought in Korea.

Other than that? We have been involved in more coups, in more places, for worse reasons, than the British Empire ever thought of. Vietnam was not a righteous war. The Gulf War was not a righteous war. Neither was the Iraq War. Afghanistan began as a righteous mission then turned into a distinctly unrighteous war.

Americans have the blood of the world on our hands, and we deny that every day. The difference between the parties is that Republicans do it more systematically.

Failures of the Cloud Czars

The failures of “Big Tech” aren’t what you think.

Each of the five “Cloud Czars” – Apple, Microsoft, Google, Amazon, and Meta – grew complacent over several years and let a strength become a weakness. They each now face problems that will cost tens of billions of dollars to fix. They’re cutting workers in growth areas and denying the reality.

This will spell more trouble in 2023, and opportunities for smaller companies.

I can summarize each Czar’s big problem in one word:

 

Apple – China

Microsoft – Windows

Google – Gmail

Amazon – Alexa

Meta – Facebook

Let's take 'em one by one

Business Needs Consensus

I have long believed historians misread the Progressive Era.

They see it as a victory for liberal values.

I read it as a victory for business. Which isn’t necessarily a different thing.

Fact is, the business of America is business. America has always been led by a dominant industry. Farming, then cotton, then railroads, then infrastructure, manufacturing, oil, and now technology.

Power flows to the highest-value industry and, when that is supplanted, flows away from it. Just as cotton lost to the railroads in the Civil War, I believe railroads lost to infrastructure in the Progressive Era.

What the great inventions of the late 19^th century – electricity, telephony, and the automobile – required for mass adoption was scaled, organized infrastructure. Having two or more electric utilities, two or more phone companies, or (God forbid) two or more private road networks made no sense. What Wall Street saw in the 1890s was that monopolies created efficiency.

But the monopolies would need the approval of government. The price of government approval, in a democracy, would be regulation, and some means of control over the result.

2022: The Global Cold War

It was clear in 2020 that Americans were at war with ourselves.

In 2021 that became a Cold War, mostly played out in the media and state legislatures. There were some violent outbursts. There always are. But for the most part it was our war.

In 2022 that war became global. Russia invaded Ukraine. China ratcheted up its rhetoric about invading Taiwan. Afghanistan and Iran criminalized every woman in their countries. And the war became hotter here.

With the good people of this country activated, we won some notable victories. We held off the horde in our general election. Ukraine held off Russia. China’s economy rolled over, giving Xi Jinping something else to think about. Iran’s women revolted. Jair Bolsonaro lost his re-election.

The New Class Struggle

One of the biggest stories of 2022 is the discovery of a new class struggle, happening right under our noses.

It’s the product of our technology society. It’s between those who own this society and those who “merely” manage it.

When I was focusing my work on American political history, starting in 2006 with the launch of this blog, I assumed technology would lead us toward equity.

That’s because technology runs on human capital. Talent is the gating factor to growth. Not land, not people. Talent.

What does it take to nurture talent? You have to set a wide net, because it can come from anywhere. You have to educate everyone, because anyone could be great, and anyone who’s even good provides value. You can’t care where talent comes from, the color of its skin or the way its heart works or something called “disability.” Let talent find the ability it has, and exploit that.

Let people be free and make them comfortable. That’s the best way to raise children. It’s also the route to economic growth and saving the planet.

I Have a Dream for Netiquette

In the mid-1980s I joined a group called the Electronic Networking Association.

The ENA believed, naively, that if people could communicate across their differences, they might understand each other better.

Few people used the Internet then. We were all elites, intellectually at least. We were thoughtful and we shared a First World viewpoint, even if we lived in Japan, Europe or Africa. We shared values, sort of like the Quakers. 

What we believed in was Netiquette. These are simple rules for civilized behavior. Assume goodwill. Don’t yell. In short, be nice. When in doubt, apologize and resolve to do better.  

The punishment for a violation of Netiquette was a stern talking to, for both sides of the argument. The punishment for repeated outbursts was to be shunned by the group, dismissed, cast off.

Fixing Twitter on Mastodon

Twitter is broken beyond repair.

But it can be fixed. On Mastodon. If users learn something I learned back in 1988.

I’m @danablankenhorn@journa.host on Mastodon. Journa.host is run by Adam Davidson, formerly of The New Yorker. It’s one of thousands of servers supporting Mastodon on the Internet.

Users can block users on Twitter. But on Mastodon servers can also block servers. Users can also move between servers. This means people choose whatever server conforms to their standards on what should be blocked and what allowed. You can have alt-right servers, alt-left servers, and alt-bicycling servers.

A lot of people, looking at Mastodon over the last few weeks, have looked askance at this. People are isolating behind their server walls, they complain. Or they might.

But that was always true for Twitter. It was designed to be. The problem is that many people didn’t use their block commands aggressively enough. Journalists amplified extreme views by retweeting them. Hate was amplified by user outrage.