Dana Blankenhorn

Word of the Year: Enshitification

Enshitification is what happens when principles go out the window.

Principles like service, like honor, like honesty, like “a little looking for the other fella,” as James Stewart said in Mr. Smith Goes to Washington, are what make civilization possible. When they disappear, as they have over the last several years, it doesn’t matter much what your system is or what your laws say. Those with power will take it, and only the strongest will survive.

This is mostly discussed today in the realm of politics. Words have lost their meaning and are often used to mean their opposite in the name of victory. Facts mean nothing and are simply denied in the name of power.

Lean Into $100 Oil

Markets are being spooked right now by Saudi Arabia’s decision to join Russia in cutting oil supplies. 

If oil prices stay high or go higher, analysts say, the economy may go into recession, and President Biden’s re-election will be threatened. 

I think there’s one weird trick that can prove a decisive point in world history.

Lean into it.

Accept higher oil prices. Note that American oil companies benefit. Explain that higher prices, and lower consumption, are essential in the fight against climate change. Highlight the growing cost disparity between fossil fuels and renewable energy, which continues to grow.

The Sauds and Russians think they have us over an oil barrel.

We should make this a decisive moment for putting them over one. 

There will be short-term pain because the analysts are right. Higher oil prices could tank the economy. They could cause a recession.

But, like the song says, your creature comforts aren’t the only things worth fighting for. The point of Biden’s economic policy has been to create American supply chains in energy, transportation, and manufacturing. The money to build these supply chains is being spent, supported by billions in private investment.

Health Care Mystery Solved

Around the time Barack Obama became President, I ran a health IT beat for ZDNet.

One point hammered home to me was that 75% of America’s health care bill relates to chronic conditions. These are things like heart disease, diabetes, and complications from smoking or drinking.

The way to cut the bill is through preventive care, I learned. Make sure people see a doctor regularly. Use those visits to monitor their condition, to hector people about their choices, and to get us to take our medicine. Keep us out of the hospital and everyone wins.

Obamacare covered that, for most people, especially those on Medicare. It also covered the cost of computerizing clinics and hospitals. While too many people are still forced to fill out too many forms, there are now electronic records on most of us. Hospitals can find out what patients are supposed to be doing and (through test results) whether we’re doing it.

Twitter to Mastodon

Over the last months I’ve been spending a lot less time on Twitter, now called X, and more time on Mastodon, its open source doppelganger.

The difference between the two can be summed up in two words. No algorithm.

When you use Twitter, or any commercial social media site, an algorithm encourages you to stay online. You like fluffy bunnies? Here are posts on fluffy bunnies. You can quickly fall into a fluffy bunny rabbit hole, where fluffy bunnies are all that matters, and anyone who doesn’t like fluffy bunnies is some sick pervert. This is especially true on TikTok.

At Twitter, this is found under the tab marked “for you.” The tab doesn’t exist in Mastodon. Instead, there are other tabs. “Home” is like Twitter’s “following” tab. Federated shows the most recent posts on any site, no matter where they come from. You can input a hashtag to get news on any topic of interest, like #Ukraine. There’s also a local tab featuring messages placed on Mastodon server you are part of.

This last is important. There is no central control in the “Fediverse,” which includes many other social services, including a Facebook clone and an Instagram clone. Instead, anyone can spin-up a server or “instance” and choose who to connect or “federate” with. In practice, while Meta’s “Threads” is compatible with Mastodon, many Mastodon servers won’t link to it, fearing the force of the algorithm, the coming firehose of content, or just Mark Zuckerberg’s right hook.

What No One Wants to Hear

America is doing great. Anger burns itself out. We’re playing the 1983 Game. Ask your folks what happened in 1984.

No one wants to hear this, let alone admit it.

The Reich won’t hear it because it’s their job to be angry. The left won’t hear it because they think anger is necessary to beat the Reich.

The truth is different.

Meet the New Slum

Building a 21^st century city means ditching late 20^th century street plans in favor of the era before World War II.

That’s because 21^st century cities demand density, and mixed uses. The idea of fixed use zoning – offices, stores, homes separate – needs to go away. The most bike-able parts of Atlanta are on the east side, where Atlanta, Decatur, and Avondale Estates all had established street plans before Pearl Harbor. Outside that, roads are a half-mile apart, everyone is on a cul-de-sac, and you need a car to go anywhere.

Decatur can be a model, if area parking decks are organized so streets like Clairmont and Ponce de Leon can become car-free. What’s left are rows of four story blocks with homes or offices upstairs, restaurants and retail on the ground floor. This leaves room for small parks, which the nearby MARTA station delivers. It’s the best planned urban space in the Atlanta region.

DeKalb County had a chance to replicate this a few miles to the east, at the Kensington MARTA station. Instead, what’s going up are Stalinist rectangular blocks surrounded by street-level parking. It’s a 21^st century Pruitt-Igoe that will, by 2035, have the highest crime rate in the region.

The Coming Disney Breakup

Walt Disney Co. is in play. (I remember getting one of these sent to me after the Disney Channel's launch in 1980.)

CEO Bob Iger fired his replacement and can’t find another one. The company is killing its streaming service by reducing content and raising prices. Its deal with Penn Entertainment, directly running a sportsbook, means ESPN is now incompatible with the main company’s business model. The resorts business is tanking, thanks mainly to climate change.

My guess is that the entertainment company will be sold to Apple, probably within a year. ESPN, ABC, and the parks will be spun out as separately traded companies. It might happen all at once.

The only reason to keep the whole thing together was “synergy.” A bad year for one division might be offset by a good year in another. The combination would then be a better investment than the parts.

But that’s not working. The movie business is dying. Disney is doing all it can to hasten that by refusing to bargain with its unions. If management and labor aren’t partners, you can’t do business.

The TV business was dead years ago. This includes cable.

The resorts business is increasingly divorced from the rest of the company.

The Internet is doing to the streaming business what it did to print. Paywalls take away 90% of your audience. Advertising rates keep declining because there’s too much free content. Live sports are viable but the billionaires who control teams and leagues keep pricing fans out of the market. If it’s all just about money, the players will gravitate to whoever offers more of it.

E-Books are Better

This is a take that’s going to be surprisingly unpopular, despite being obvious.

E-books are better than paper books.

They cost nothing to deliver. They’re cheaper than paper books. They don’t kill trees. They’re lighter and easier to read.

They can also be updated, and that’s important.

I got a call recently from a company wanting to reprint my 2001 book on tech history, which I called (unfortunately) The Blankenhorn Effect. I later re-issued it twice, each time under a different title, as I came to understand that tech changes too fast for books to keep up with. My next project will be another update, tentatively titled Moore’s Lore 2024: More After Moore.

What’s the advantage of a paper book? It’s permanent. Its sale process offers serendipity. There’s nothing like the smell and feel of a bookshop, or a library. You can make the same arguments for LPs over a streaming service.

There’s one more argument that book lovers use. They hate Amazon.Com.

I get it. Amazon, and its Kindle, rule the e-book market. It’s the format of choice. It holds a market monopoly. This has made Amazon lazy. The whole Kindle business is now a pimple on the butt of Amazon.Com, which was founded almost 30 years ago to sell paper books.

Could Xi Fall?

It’s a question no one is even asking.

Could Xi Jinping fall from power?

There is no evidence for this. He is in his third term as China’s President, and increasingly acts like Vladimir Putin. He’s committing genocide in Xinjiang, he has destroyed Hong Kong’s economy, and he is threatening to invade Taiwan. He has absolute impunity. He is the world’s strongest dictator.

But how secure is he?

Unlike every other dictator on this planet, Xi Jinping presides over a complex, post-industrial economy. As I’ve been writing for decades, such an economy relies on highly trained, educated, and motivated people. The secret to America’s success lies in our ability to create, encourage, and (when necessary) import such people. (I know Trumpism threatens all this, but that’s another story for another time.)

The E-Bike Life

I have been an urban cyclist for 45 years.  But age is real. At 68, a short ride can easily send my heart rate to places it shouldn’t be.

The answer is an e-bike.

I have been using an e-bike we bought for my son’s commute for several months now. The e-bike I chose is the Lectric XP 3. It cost $1,000, amazing because my old road bike cost me $800 in 1981.

The Lectric is foldable. It’s too heavy for a bike rack, but it breaks at the base and the handlebars so you can get it into the trunk of a Toyota Corolla. The battery is in the down tube. You plug it into the wall. (Unplug it as soon as the light goes green.) Top speed is 20, with pedal assist, but the weight lets it run down Atlanta’s hills at 25-30. Range is estimated at 20 miles but the way I ride, which is carefully, it’s closer to 30.