Dana Blankenhorn

Lessons of the Labor Shortage

There are three reasons for the current labor shortage. 

Two are signs of failure. One is a sign of success.

First, the failures.

The refusal of many employers, especially in the food service industry, to pay a living wage has long been a disgrace. They got away with it, in part, because America welcomed millions of immigrants, especially from Latin America. With the flow cut off, and other workers forced to fend for themselves for nearly a year, is it any wonder they won’t come back without more money?

This statement is controversial. I have friends who insist “people don’t want to work,” because they get more money not working. It’s not true, but my friends won’t budge. It might be because these friends are locked-in to their current positions, their current pay scale, their current lifestyle. I hate to say this of people I love, but there’s also some racism involved.

Why Tech Should Buy More Media

Ever since Microsoft tried, and failed, in cable news with MSNBC, tech has been leery of investing in media.

There have been exceptions. Jeff Bezos bought The Washington Post. Marc Benioff bought Time. But these were personal investments, not corporate. They were made for political reasons, not business ones.

The result is that the media remains run by conservatives, by junk men, and by useful idiots. Fox News has been joined by OAN and Newsmax. Local papers are being destroyed by hedge funds like Alden, who are more interested in the tax breaks than the product. CNN, MSNBC, and The New York Times  remain committed to “both siderism,” which allows the right to drive the agenda.

This is threatening the country, the economy and (most important) tech. Billionaires like the Smith family, which owns Sinclair, come from the resource industries. They see labor as fungible. They see the world in black-and-white. They don’t see change and they don’t want change.

Change is what tech thrives on. It’s what tech produces. Brains are the gating factor to technology growth and it’s clear that today’s conservatives hate brains. Otherwise, they would have endorsed the vaccine and wouldn’t have pushed Trump.

A half-century ago the right saw this kind of threat and acted. The myth of the “liberal media" is based on the idea that reporters were professionals, but it didn’t understand how Vietnam was a Cold War activity. It didn’t see the coming resource wars. Only the resource industries, the oil guys and lumber guys and real estate guys, saw that.

Trading vs. Investing

People are always being told to invest in good companies and ignore the daily price fluctuations.

That makes sense. But the advice on what to buy often doesn’t.

Take the chip sector. If I want to make money today, I buy Nvidia. (I did a few years ago, and my retirement account is better for it.) But I watch it closely. There are things that could send the stock crashing down. For one thing, its effort to buy ARM Holdings, the British chip design house, could fail. China’s government must approve it. So must ours. That is unlikely to happen, but it could.

Another risk. Stock buyers could decide Nvidia is overpriced. Right now, it costs about 25 times sales, and over 90 times earnings, to own Nvidia stock. That’s expensive no matter how you slice it. It there’s new demand in other sectors of the economy, that could easily go down. An end to the current chip shortage would also hurt Nvidia.

Living With Moore's Law: Past, Present and Future

This is actually the fourth edition of this book, which I have been writing and rewriting for 20 years now. 

Living With Moore's Law: Past, Present and Future is a collection of essays I have been working toward all my working life. It describes what Moore's Law is, how it developed, and how it extended into every area of computing through the 20th century.

Then it does more. I take the story into the present and explain just what we need to do, as a society, to take advantage of these miracles.

Then it does more. I have written an extra chapter about what comes next, the miracles that await us by harnessing the capabilities created by Moore's Law -- clouds, devices, and wireless networks. 

I consider it must reading for anyone interested in technology, in what it has done for us, what it's doing to us, and how we need to work with it to save the planet. 

Also, it's just $2.99. Free if you get it through Kindle Unlimited, Amazon's $10/month lending library. 

Cheap as chips.

Previous versions were offered as The Blankenhorn Effect in 2002, as Moore's Law: Better and Better, Faster and Faster in 2010, and as Technology's Big Bang: Yesterday, Today and Tomorrow with Moore's Law, in 2019. 

Virtual Staging

Right now, production for films, TV, video games, and Web sales are all done differently.

Five years from now, they will all be done in the same way, using “virtual stages” and virtual reality software.

As with everything else in tech, it’s starting at the top of the cost curve but will head down rapidly. Tools like the Unreal Engine cover the software side. Virtual stages represent the hardware side.

The cost of this gear is very high. But the gear is just the tip of the cost iceberg. You need people who can run it, you need people who can write code around it. You need people to integrate it, people who can tell stories using it, and you need big bandwidth to distribute it.

Atlanta and Workforce Housing

To survive, cities need to be majority middle-class, even upper middle-class.

Why? Cities cost more to maintain than suburbs. There’s more infrastructure. It’s older.

This means cities need to be attractive to upper middle-class people. That means they must be livable and walkable. If you’re going to increase density, you also must increase parkland. Not just one or two parks on the city margins. You need medium size parks, small parks, and vest pocket parks everywhere. You also need trees. Lots of trees. Anywhere a tree will fit.

This doesn’t mean you limit density. But if you’re going to have block-after-block of four-story buildings you’re going to need some parks within walking distance. Otherwise, you’re building a slum.

Behind the Housing Crisis

Today’s housing crisis is the perfect storm of demographics and inefficiency driven by politics.

The demographic thing is easy. I’m 66 and I’m not moving. There are lots of us boomers. Staying alive. Enjoying our homes. This means fewer homes for younger people. Eventually we die and the baby bust enters the housing market. We become Japan. Just not now.

Housing has resisted Moore’s Law in 3 ways. Most of the costs are political.

1. State building codes keep out new building new technology. That’s politics.
2. Local zoning keeps out all but politically-connected builders. That’s politics.
3. Transactions resist automation. This can be fixed.

Right now, it can cost 15% of your equity to move. That’s about 6% on each side of the transaction, buying and selling, then 3% for the actual move. The idea of a starter home, a home for kids, then downsizing means 45% of your equity goes out the door during your life. The only people getting rich are the agents and brokers taking your money.

Political Secrets of Madison Avenue

Next time you see an ad, any ad, look closely.

It’s telling you which way the wind is blowing.

Advertising is a psychological mirror. It offers images of what we think ourselves to be. It must do that to do its job. We see the people in an ad, we identify with them, and through that we identify with the product or service being sold to us. If we don’t identify with those people, we don’t buy the product. Thus, ads can’t make mistakes.

Look at the history of advertising, and you’ll see that clearly. You will see it in cleaning products, in cooking products, in cars and insurance ads. It’s why Aunt Jemima and Uncle Ben were beloved brand names for a century, until we saw the racism inside them. It’s why Toyota ads never change.

In 2021 ads are shouting one word. Diversity. They’re showing mixed-race couples far more often than you see them on the street. They’re showing same sex couples in the same way. Most spokesmen are now spokeswomen. An ad for VMware shows Cyrina Fiallo wearing sneakers and casual clothes  telling viewers to “welcome change.” What’s striking about the new Verizon ad with Kate McKinnon is that she’s wearing heels. Then again, Verizon is a conservative company.

The New Hybrid Cloud

You get a cloud. And you get a cloud. Everybody gets a cloud.

Well, most people.

Several years ago, the idea of the “hybrid cloud” died. The idea that companies should keep their data centers while moving “customer facing” applications only to the public cloud didn’t make economic sense. Cloud applications ran so much cheaper than systems designed for mainframes or internal networks.

It wasn’t just about hardware. It was also about software. Proprietary software couldn’t compete with open source. Linux won. Even Microsoft admitted it. Tech companies acted rationally, by extracting the equivalent of “monopoly rents” from their data center offerings, which hastened the move to public cloud.

Now things may be about to reverse. That’s because, as companies and organizations have gone “all-in” on cloud, they’re finding themselves with huge bills. If Google or Microsoft or Amazon is the “one throat you can choke,” they’re the ones choking you.

Mississippi: The Model Republican State

The Civil War isn’t over. It can still be lost.

The Civil Rights movement isn’t over, either. It is being lost.

Nowhere is this truth more obvious than Mississippi.

Mississippi had about 2.1 million people in 1960. In 2020 it had 2.9 million. It was only two states to lose population during the decade of the cloud. Its economic growth is anemic. Growth is best when federal receipts expand during recessions, or during economic boom times when gambling rises.

If Mississippi were a country, and not getting federal aid, it would be part of the Third World. It tried to build an oil economy, and a lumbering economy, but the big draw is still casinos, which line the Mississippi, the Gulf Coast. What happens when online gambling, and online sports betting, eliminates the need for casinos? It’s a question no one even asks.

Mississippi is a case study for current Republican priorities. Jim Crow never left Mississippi. He just adapted, giving local power where blacks held local majorities, but maintaining power through an all-white power structure that still survives.