Dana Blankenhorn

What I Learned on my European Vacation

Regular readers have missed me, I hope.

I took a two-week break to take my bride of nearly 46 years to Europe. Specifically, we flew to Germany, where my father’s people came from. On our first day we saw a ruin called Castle Blankenhorn, built in the 12^th century. Folks who came from that castle, which was controlled by the Hohenstaufen dynasty, took its name when they moved on.

We moved on, too, in a 2022 VW Tiguan with a 6-gear stick shift, along Autobahns which at times had no speed limit. We saw the Neuschwanstein Castle, the fairy tale accompaniment to an older pile built on a ruin like “da castle a my fadder.” We saw a statue dedicated to Carl Laemmle, the founder of Universal Studios (and 20^th century Hollywood). We went to a soccer game in Ingolstodt, visited its street festival, and explored the “Romantic Road,” created after World War II specifically to lead tourists to medieval sites (and extract their money). I do wish they extracted a little more of mine, in the form of hats, t-shirts and the like, but they’re still into books, postcards and refrigerator magnets.

Sell Nvidia, Buy Amazon

These are heady days for Nvidia, and profitable ones for my retirement account.

I bought 100 shares of Nvidia about 5 years ago, which soon turned into 300. I sold one-third of them to get my money out, but the remaining shares are worth nearly $500 each.

Nvidia is the chief arms merchant to the cloud. Its GPUs are essential to AI applications. More important, so is its software. It’s the Nvidia software stack that keeps chip rivals like AMD and Intel from gaining traction.

I also own stock in Amazon.Com If you’re into AI, Amazon.com is the better opportunity.

While Nvidia is at the front-end of AI, Amazon is at the back end of it. It’s Amazon that will reap AI’s rewards, in its supply chain, in its warehouse operations, and in its media business. Imagine if you could speak to Alexa casually and get real answers.

Amazon’s AWS cloud still has one-third of the market. Its approach in AI is to offer a wide range of tools, rather than insist companies buy any particular one. This makes sense to me.

Twitter to Mastodon

Over the last months I’ve been spending a lot less time on Twitter, now called X, and more time on Mastodon, its open source doppelganger.

The difference between the two can be summed up in two words. No algorithm.

When you use Twitter, or any commercial social media site, an algorithm encourages you to stay online. You like fluffy bunnies? Here are posts on fluffy bunnies. You can quickly fall into a fluffy bunny rabbit hole, where fluffy bunnies are all that matters, and anyone who doesn’t like fluffy bunnies is some sick pervert. This is especially true on TikTok.

At Twitter, this is found under the tab marked “for you.” The tab doesn’t exist in Mastodon. Instead, there are other tabs. “Home” is like Twitter’s “following” tab. Federated shows the most recent posts on any site, no matter where they come from. You can input a hashtag to get news on any topic of interest, like #Ukraine. There’s also a local tab featuring messages placed on Mastodon server you are part of.

This last is important. There is no central control in the “Fediverse,” which includes many other social services, including a Facebook clone and an Instagram clone. Instead, anyone can spin-up a server or “instance” and choose who to connect or “federate” with. In practice, while Meta’s “Threads” is compatible with Mastodon, many Mastodon servers won’t link to it, fearing the force of the algorithm, the coming firehose of content, or just Mark Zuckerberg’s right hook.

Productivity Explosion

Soon after being given a high tech beat at the Atlanta Business Chronicle, in 1982, I bought my first computer. (The picture was taken in 1981.)

I could suddenly write up an interview or press event in an hour. I would read it out loud and make corrections. Then my super-loud C. Itoh dot-matrix printer would buzz it up onto fanfold paper.

The fanfold would go to typesetters, who created long sheets they would paste onto boards, which became the paper. Plastic squares would be turned into pictures at the printer. The pictures would be clipped to each board and the whole collection driven 50 miles. Most papers were then mailed to subscribers, but some were bound for retail sale.

Back at the front end of this process I bragged I could do the work of three men. The noise, and my attitude, caused the paper to fire me the next year and hire the three men.

A few years later I visited my former boss in Houston and found everyone was working at terminals.

The Coming Disney Breakup

Walt Disney Co. is in play. (I remember getting one of these sent to me after the Disney Channel's launch in 1980.)

CEO Bob Iger fired his replacement and can’t find another one. The company is killing its streaming service by reducing content and raising prices. Its deal with Penn Entertainment, directly running a sportsbook, means ESPN is now incompatible with the main company’s business model. The resorts business is tanking, thanks mainly to climate change.

My guess is that the entertainment company will be sold to Apple, probably within a year. ESPN, ABC, and the parks will be spun out as separately traded companies. It might happen all at once.

The only reason to keep the whole thing together was “synergy.” A bad year for one division might be offset by a good year in another. The combination would then be a better investment than the parts.

But that’s not working. The movie business is dying. Disney is doing all it can to hasten that by refusing to bargain with its unions. If management and labor aren’t partners, you can’t do business.

The TV business was dead years ago. This includes cable.

The resorts business is increasingly divorced from the rest of the company.

The Internet is doing to the streaming business what it did to print. Paywalls take away 90% of your audience. Advertising rates keep declining because there’s too much free content. Live sports are viable but the billionaires who control teams and leagues keep pricing fans out of the market. If it’s all just about money, the players will gravitate to whoever offers more of it.

40 Years an Internet Client: A History

I have been using the Internet since moving into our present house 40 years ago.

It doesn’t seem that long. It was a lifetime ago.

To the right is my original set-up. It cost $2,799. The $300 modem ran at 300 baud. That was enough in a text Internet era. I used MCI Mail to file stories with those editors advanced enough to take them that way. (MCI printed them for the rest.) I still remember a 1989 Tokyo trade show where I used my TRS100, which also had a 300 baud modem, to send copy to San Francisco, then London. Good times.

Over time modems got better. My 300 baud became a 1,200 baud when I switched to an IBM PC. Then there was a 9,600 baud unit I got for a PC compatible later in the decade. Eventually I even had one with a claimed speed of 56,000. Its maker tried to support the phone companies’ ISDN efforts and went bankrupt.

E-Books are Better

This is a take that’s going to be surprisingly unpopular, despite being obvious.

E-books are better than paper books.

They cost nothing to deliver. They’re cheaper than paper books. They don’t kill trees. They’re lighter and easier to read.

They can also be updated, and that’s important.

I got a call recently from a company wanting to reprint my 2001 book on tech history, which I called (unfortunately) The Blankenhorn Effect. I later re-issued it twice, each time under a different title, as I came to understand that tech changes too fast for books to keep up with. My next project will be another update, tentatively titled Moore’s Lore 2024: More After Moore.

What’s the advantage of a paper book? It’s permanent. Its sale process offers serendipity. There’s nothing like the smell and feel of a bookshop, or a library. You can make the same arguments for LPs over a streaming service.

There’s one more argument that book lovers use. They hate Amazon.Com.

I get it. Amazon, and its Kindle, rule the e-book market. It’s the format of choice. It holds a market monopoly. This has made Amazon lazy. The whole Kindle business is now a pimple on the butt of Amazon.Com, which was founded almost 30 years ago to sell paper books.

The First AI Crash

No technology trend goes straight up. There are always crashes along the way, as subsets of the trend fall behind, while others prove their worth.

This was true with the Internet. Search engine companies were falling even before Google was created. It’s why Wall Street wanted Yahoo to become a “portal.” (Wall Street knows nothing.)

This will be true for A.I. as well. It’s starting right now.

The “consumer side” will crash first. Things like ChatGPT were fun for a while, but the mass market is deciding it’s more like Pokemon Go than “the Google.”

For any technology to gain legs, it must prove its utility. It must create productivity. It must not only do things that weren’t available before, but it must make money doing it, and make doing other things easier.

Open Source is the Tortoise, Not the Hare

One reason reporters are slow to see the threat ActivityPub offers to Threads and Twitter is the nature of open source.

It moves slowly. It’s reactive.

Open source isn’t innovative, in the classic sense. You can have innovations in open source, but they’re in addition to something meant to emulate something else.

Given time, however, open source always wins.

My son and I still laugh over the 2009 CompuTex show in Taiwan, where I set out after “desktop Linux.” Finally found a few booths outside the main hall, and even met Jim Zemlin, head of the Linux Foundation, as he finished a speech to attendees.

Threads and Open Source

The Clouds were built with open source.

What’s now Meta Platforms got its start not with the “social network” of Facebook, but with the Open Compute Project. It’s an open source platform for building hyperscale data centers at minimal cost.

Thanks to Open Compute, Meta owns its own infrastructure. It also has thousands of programmers on staff, whose job it is to bring traffic to that infrastructure. But even with Threads, Meta didn’t forget where it came from.

Threads is being built to support ActivityPub, the open source system behind Mastodon and what’s called the Fediverse.

Each Mastodon server will shortly have a choice, whether to connect to or “federate” with Threads. Some will. Some won’t. If you don’t like the decision of your instance’s admin, you can choose another instance that meets your needs. Or you can set up your own.

In short, you don’t need Threads. Its only advantage is its scale since it will use Meta infrastructure. That’s also its disadvantage. It’s being built to collect data and monetize it. Mastodon isn’t.

The degree to which Cloud Czars like Meta and its four peers – Apple, Microsoft, Google, and Amazon – support the open source ethos they’re built on is always an open question. They will go back-and-forth on it, adding support here, withholding it there, based on their own business requirements.