Dana Blankenhorn

The Paralysis of War

War is paralyzing, even for those unconnected with it.

You can’t make plans. You have no energy. You have no idea what’s going to happen next.

I go back and forth. One day I think Ukraine can win this thing, or at least hang on until Putin is deposed. The next day I think they’re doomed, and the world with it.

Regardless of the result it’s already clear that Ukraine and Russia must be rebuilt. Ukraine, physically. Russia, politically.

It’s Russia that’s the biggest problem. It can’t sustain a Ukraine occupation. We couldn’t sustain one in Iraq, or even Afghanistan. Yet Putin thinks he can, and so-called “analysts” in the West agree. They don’t think the Russian people can do anything, nor do they think the Ukranians can once occupied.

This is naïve.

OPIC

My one fault with the Biden Administration so far has been its leniency toward its enemies.

Republicans aren’t the loyal opposition anymore. Vladimir Putin isn’t just an adversary. Those who still support Putin are domestic enemies, and it’s there in the oath of office, that you protect against both foreign AND domestic enemies.

The spike in oil prices may be another opportunity lost.

The opportunity is to create what I call an Organization of Petroleum IMPORTING Countries (OPIC). While the U.S. is nominally an exporter, we are the natural leader of this group, which could include India, Japan, Europe, South America, most of Africa and even China.

The first task of OPIC would be to account for the elimination of Russian supply from the market. Each member would agree to a specified reduction in imports, or an import maximum. Each member government would deal with this shortfall however it saw fit. But if no one breaks the agreement, then you can go toe-to-toe with OPEC in the oil markets, searching for price stability.

Saudi Arabia and other OPEC members want price stability. They like price spikes, but they know they’re a short-term thing. Over time, over the next 10 years, they know that their net production will rise, while demand will fall. The Sun shines, the wind blows, rivers, and tides, roll, we live on a molten rock, and there’s also efficiency. Today’s cars, trucks, appliances, and computers all use much less energy than they did before. The increase in time between charges for your phones is all due to their becoming more efficient. The batteries are the same.