Dana Blankenhorn

Fog of Global War

This is a depressing day. It’s the day when crystal balls are shattered. It’s the day I expected to happen, but now it’s upon us.

There comes a time in every campaign where you really don’t know what’s going on.

Both sides are spinning small events as big deals. Everyone is talking past one another. Everything is up in the air.

This is October, and it’s the same in America every two years, as people choose what direction they want their states and nation to go in.

But it’s worse this time.

That’s because, in addition to the usual midterm madness, we’re at the center of a global crisis. Russia is seriously threatening nuclear war over its losses in Ukraine. Iranian women are rising and being crushed underfoot. In China, Xi Jinping may become a new Putin, an absolute dictator with no guardrails. Religious dictatorship is rising against democracy in India. We don’t know what’s happening in Brazil. The Sauds are pushing up oil prices.

This is also no normal midterm election. This is an existential battle between democracy and fascism. Major media try to both sides it, but that’s increasingly impossible. Every possible -ism is rising against democratic compromise and common sense – sexism, racism, fascism, Christianism. All the evils bedeviling the rest of the world have come here to roost because Vladimir Putin invited them in.

Nuclear Impunity

I wrote about the concept of impunity back in August.

I was talking in terms of American politics, but there’s a bigger kind of impunity, nuclear impunity, which Russia is now attempting to deploy.

The idea is that once you have a nuclear weapon you are immune to criticism. You can do whatever you want, kill whomever you want, because if you’re pushed to the brink, you can destroy the world.

North Korea is well known for this. The Kim dynasty can destroy their economy, starve their people, commit all kinds of crimes but South Korea writes it off because they have nukes. North Koreans are now several inches shorter than the people to their south. They suffer from chronic malnutrition. They live in a geographic prison, and no one will help them escape, because the Kims have nukes.

We can’t have effective nuclear non-proliferation with this kind of impunity. It’s too tempting. We know Israel has nukes. We just don’t say so. We know India and Pakistan both have nukes. We’re scared of Iran getting nukes because they might use them against Israel.

The Next Big Gains Are Not for You

Markets will turn when they’re convinced the Federal Reserve is easing up in its war against inflation.

This could come at any time. Home prices are starting to fall. Industrial input prices have been falling for months. The strong dollar means we’re exporting inflation and importing deflation. Technology continues to cut costs, including labor costs.

Once the tide has turned, TV will be all over rising stock prices. The Cloud Czars will rise first, along with consumer stocks. Even banks might finally get a bid.

But the real gains will come in bonds.

That’s a problem. Because bond markets are far less liquid than stock markets. It costs big money to research bond markets, even in a cursory manner. It’s difficult to execute a purchase, even of a government bond. Most investors don’t understand bond markets. Others fear the fact that bonds have been falling in value right along with stocks.

But here’s what happens when money costs money but then starts costing less money.