Dana Blankenhorn

2019: Crime in the Suites

My adult millennial children are both conservative, but in the nicest possible way.

They have ethics. They expect correct behavior from authority. When they don’t see it, they want it punished, not with a wrist slap, but with jail time.

I agree, and 2019 will mark the start of a process toward getting it. Justice is slow, but it is certain.

If 2018 was the year when crime was stripped naked, with the MeToo movement, the Trump treason, and corporate theft, 2019 will be the first year of retribution.

This becomes certain when you look at the economy. The next year may be the most readily predicted, indeed eagerly anticipated, recession of my lifetime.

A Santa Story

Recently I woke from troubled dreams to find myself with white hair, a long beard, and a troubling impact on small children.

Little kids would look up at me, wide-eyed.

Their faces held a mixture of awe and fear.

I knew what they were thinking.

I gathered some of them together and told them a story.

The Close Season

Update: Atlanta United chose Frank de Boer as manager instead of Guillermo Barros Schelotto, who is heading to the LA Galaxy.

It has to do with playing style - de Boer's is closer to Tata's. President Darren Eales also decided that Atlanta can now recruit South America on the club's reputation, rather than the manager's. Time will tell how that works out.

The first thing de Boer must do is convince a big European club to pay Miguel Almiron starter's money in a transfer. Getting starter's money -- $15 million or more -- is a key to the whole project. We need to make a profit on turning starlets into stars. Do that often enough, build the league, and in time we'll be able to compete on salary against Europe, head-to-head.

Note that Zlatan is getting $7.5 million, which equates to a UK salary of nearly 147,000 UK Pounds a week, more than that league's top stars make, but less than many U.S. baseball shortstops make. 

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Let’s not talk about politics this week. It’s Christmas.

Let’s not talk about business, or technology, or global warming. Let’s talk about something fun and exciting.

Let’s talk about football.

The most important off-season in Atlanta sports history, the most important one in America’s soccer history, began December 8 with the sight of a sad coach losing a big game.

2018: Halfway Through the Gauntlet

Kids are taught in history that Gettysburg was the turning point of the Civil War, and that Operation Torch, the invasion of North Africa, was the turning point in World War II.

From July 4, 1863, the South never invaded the north again. From January 1943, the Nazis and Japanese never again had the initiative.

That’s not the way things were to the people living through these crises. While these events were celebrated, people knew better.

I believe it will be seen that November 6, 2018 represented a similar turning point in the crisis represented by Donald Trump, and the invasion of the West by Russia that is, even now, escalating in Europe and the Ukraine. But a turning point isn’t final victory. It doesn’t even mean victory is in sight.

Nostalgia

Nostalgia is derived from two Greek words. Nostos means home, algos means pain.

I have never been one for nostalgia. I prefer to look ahead. I’m not into pain.

So, 40 years ago I looked forward to people moving into central cities, and 30 years ago I was so high on the Internet. It’s why 20 years ago I was thinking about what’s now called the Internet of Things, and why 10 years ago I was big on clouds.

Throughout my life, better and better has gotten faster and faster. American lifestyles seem little changed from what they were when I was growing up on Long Island. But a half-century ago, in The Shoes of the Fisherman, mass starvation was a reality in China. It was a reality in India, too, and across Africa.

Good News in the Next Recession

The U.S. economy is heading into a recession.

This should be obvious. Trump threw a party for his friends a year ago, but the $1.5 trillion bill must be paid.

That means interest rates are going up. Housing and autos are already tanking. Companies that want to borrow money are going to find it more expensive. The lucky ones might get the equivalent of adjustable rates, but those will adjust higher.

Meanwhile, private debts must also be paid. There’s a mountain of private equity debt out there, along with a mountain of student loan debt. There’s a global market of debt, much of which will be unpayable. Bad debts will have to be written off. Thanks to Obama, our banks will survive. I can’t say the same for Europe’s.