Dana Blankenhorn

The American Civil Cold War

Think of this as Volume 15, Number 3 of A-Clue.com, the online newsletter I've written since 1997. Enjoy.

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The first Civil War, like World War II, was an epic struggle with a final outcome.

Everyone who engaged in it knew what they were doing was important. Those who opposed either war, like Clement Vanlandingham or Charles Lindbergh, were swept away and the movements they represented tossed down the memory hole.

The Cold War was different.

The Cold War was a long, twilight struggle, engaged in mostly through proxies, and it was always controversial. It defined the differences between America's parties, mainly because Republicans wanted it  that way. Any objection, whether tentative or tactical, whether couched diplomatically or screamed on a street corner, led to proponents rejecting not just the speech but the speaker. They had to cry treason, they felt, because without absolute unity we might lose.

There was never the kind of absolute unity the Cold War's proponents demanded. Yet we won.

Since the height of the Vietnam war protest movement, I believe America has been engaged in a Civil Cold War. Like that other Cold War, it is mainly fought by proxy. Those behind the struggle never suffer, seldom die. That's the proxies' job. You don't become a hero by dying for your country -- you become one by making the other son of a bitch die for his country.

You tell people to kill, they kill, but it's not your fault. R-i-i-i-ght. http://bit.ly/hIs30m But pot smokers are to blame for Mexican drug killings, you say?

The software patent mouse trap

At ZDNet I wrote a lot about software patents, to the point where they seemed to be a problem mainly for open source.

After the Roberts Court's refusal to make a decision in Bilski vs. Kappos, Google's competitors decided they could box in Android, a Linux distro Google's Open Handset Alliance had developed for mobile phones, by filing patent suits.

NOTE: This is the second in a series on open source subjects I'll be publishing here until I get a new paying gig around the subject.

What we've seen since is a bit like the opening of the First World War, everyone suing nearly everyone over absolutely everything. Florian Mueller has been following the action over at his FossPatents blog so you don't have to.

Right now it's a phony war, with all sides manuevering around various courts and claims. Shots will be fired if some court has to come to a decision, endorsing claims that Android is in violation of a patent and fixing damages. This would essentially make Linux in violation of patents.

But this is not really about open source at all. It's about the nature of innovation when machines are reduced to software. It's about the desireability of software patents, and the price we may be paying for them.

Consider the mouse. Xerox' Doug Engelbart won the first patent on a computer mouse in 1970. But he patented only one physical design for a computer mouse interface. 

The Solar Halo

Think of this as Volume 15, Number 2 of A-Clue.com, the online newsletter I've written since 1997. Enjoy.

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Nothing is as hot right now as renewable energy, especially solar.

The technology is ripe. You can write a 15-year lease on rooftop solar panels and, with current government aid programs, come up with enough to make it seem a good deal all around. It's great for the lessor, not so good for the lessee, but that's the way it goes.

A signable lease is just the first of many crossover points solar is going to go through, as manufacturing ramps up and technology keeps improving. Next comes an industry big enough, and tied in closely enough with banks, to do mortgages. As prices decline cash deals will become commonplace. Millions of new jobs are on tap.

Current panels are about 15% efficient. Thin films are usually just 8% efficient, but their flexibility makes them even more popular. Both those efficiency numbers will climb, and there are a variety of other technologies coming out of labs that will take advantage of ultraviolet light, heat, and do a better job of accounting for the changing angle of the Sun.

Storage technology is also improving. That's a game changer for electrical utilities. You can't turn the Sun on-and-off as you can an oil-fired power plant, and the same is true with the wind. But if you can store that power, either with a better battery, or underground in the form of compressed gas, you make it more reliable. Utilities are also interested in "molten salt" systems that heat a chemical mix while the Sun shines and use that energy to produce electricity after it sets.

Good times.

The Big Gotcha in Open Source

Most observers of open source think the big issue for 2011 will be patents.

It's true the issue of patents is important, but not just for open source. Innovation can stop if, instead of protecting mousetrap designs, we're protecting the idea of catching mice, which most software patents seem to do. But that is an issue for the entire industry, not just open source.

For CIOs interested in open source, the key point to look at is copyright.

NOTE: I covered open source for ZDNet for over 5 years and would like to get back in the game. Meanwhile I'm producing some essays for this site covering important topics.