Think of this as Volume 18, Number 15 of the newsletter I have written weekly since March, 1997. Enjoy.
Every economic cycle has these moments, when a premature end seems inevitable for one reason or another. It is often based on an incorrect assumption about what the underlying recovery is all about. In the 1990s, some people actually thought PCs and “multimedia” were driving the economy. In the last decade, people thought it was housing demand, not deficit spending on weapons.
So it is today. Cloud companies, social companies, and mobile companies are powerful, but Facebook, Google and Apple aren't why the economy is growing. These are all underlying trends that save money, they don't create growth.
Growth comes from making what didn't exist before. Clients and servers have been around a while. The Internet has been around a while. They're adjuncts, sideshows, and they're getting ahead of themselves. A correction can be a good thing.
In fact, this is an energy economy. I've said it before, but it needs to be repeated.