Think of this as Volume 18, Number 8 of the newsletter I have written weekly since March, 1997. Enjoy.
To those with a Clue, these seeds are easy to see. It was easy for me to see the growing Internet bubble in the late 1990s, and soon after I launched a-clue.com I began warning of it, sometimes stridently, amazed that everyone around me on the Internet Commerce beat was ignoring it.
The same thing was true for the last recession. There were many voices shouting from the economic rooftops that there was a bubble in housing prices, that liar loans carried risks, and that the “insurance” being purchased against default wasn't worth the paper it was printed on. These voices were ignored as well.
There are two reasons for this.