Dana Blankenhorn

Clint Re-Elects the President

I'm old enough to remember when the Ronald Reagan campaign lifted Bruce Springsteen's "Born in the USA" to sell the Gipper.

Springsteen was, and is, a Democrat. He didn't like being done that way. He complained, and ever since then musicians have been complaining when politicians have used their stuff without their direct political consent. (Not that it's stopped the politicians.)

Something similar happened during last night's Super Bowl.

Clint Eastwood re-elected President Obama.

I know he didn't mean to. Clint is a lifelong Republican, a former mayor of Carmel, California, quite outspoken in his beliefs, most of which I disagree with. But, like Springsteen, he's a brand. He represents America, and when he speaks we listen.

Yesterday he spoke for Detroit. He never mentioned the brand, Chrysler, whose message he was narrating. He didn't mention that Chrysler is, at present, a joint-venture between the UAW's health plan and the Italian auto maker Fiat, one Fiat is due to own all of in 2015.

Instead he gave a "half-time pep talk" to the country, noting that Detroit was back, that America was back, and the world better watch out for us in the second half.

It was inspiring. It was non-political. But it was political as hell.

Balance in Internet Law and Enforcement

Think of this as Volume 16, Number 5 of A-Clue.com, the online newsletter I've written since 1997. Enjoy.

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For digital activists, the Obama Administration has proven a bitter disappointment.

Rather than seeing the growth possibilities in unfettered access to the Web, the Administration has focused instead on the national security threat, and has been captured in turn by copyright extremists.

It's a slippery slope, but it's one liberty must navigate. It's one America itself has been navigating, sometimes with mixed results, since its founding. With the rise of the Internet, and its global impact on growth in every country, it's one we all must navigate.

Let's be clear here, because I'm hearing a lot of whinging from my side of the aisle. Activists for an open Internet are not powerless in this fight. Far from it. Because in our hands is growth – economic growth, human growth, intellectual growth. When people are forced offline, when they merely feel less than free, that has a profound, negative impact on growth.

It doesn't take a formal boycott. The action against SOPA/PIPA was merely an overt example of what happens every day, in billions of places around the world. By simply refusing to submit, by withholding the weapon of growth from governments, people demonstrate real power.

On the other hand, government must play a role as both guarantor of liberty and maintainer of order. We can't let the Internet be so open that a foreign government can hack it down. We can't let people steal from our own people and hide from justice. That's anarchy, not liberty. It may seem like a Randian paradise, but it will quickly end as all such paradises end, either in the dictatorship of the Moneytariat or a Somali wasteland.

Both sides must admit that there is a balance to be struck, but right now no one is standing in the middle and saying so. Thus we blunder on.

So let me stand in the middle and say so.

The U.S.-China Alliance

Think of this as Volume 16, Number 4 of A-Clue.com, the online newsletter I've written since 1997. Enjoy.

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Steve Jobs did something generations of political leaders have been unable to do.

He cemented the alliance between China and the United States.

He did this by making money for both, through cooperative development of his iOS line.  As he told the President, you can't make this in the U.S. We don't have the human infrastructure and logistics to produce, say, 37 million iPhones and 15.4 million iPads in one 90-day period, box them and and ship them, the way China can.

On the other hand, China lacks the software and marketing imagination needed to move that merchandise in countries around the world. It lacks the branding. Even the Chinese people know the difference between a real Apple Store and a Chinese knock-off. They will pay a premium for the real thing. And Apple, today, sits on $96.7 billion in cash.

Thus we have a symbiotic relationship, one that other companies can exploit, one that benefits the people and governments on both sides of the trade. Historically it's an important moment.

A Stand Up Guy

Republicans are having a primary fight right now that should rewrite some history books.

The assumption is that Republicans follow orders, while Democrats all want to lead the parade. Republicans vote with their heads, Democrats with their hearts.

So, Mitt Romney. It's his turn. He finished second last time, McCain lost, so it's his turn. He's got the money, he's got the looks, he's got the money, he's got the endorsements. And if his personality has a Nixon problem -- he's uncomfortable around people -- well so did Nixon. And if those Kennedys hadn't stolen 1960 Nixon never would have lost (and may have never gone paranoid).

But if Mitt Romney is the GOP ego, Newt Gingrich is its id.

Newt is still in this race because of one man, a guy I once worked for. Sheldon Adelson. Adelson cares about one issue and one issue only -- fealty to Israel and whatever Israel wants. The big story no one is writing is that Newt Gingrich has pledged such fealty, and he has $10 million (so far) to show for it.

But leave that aside. Other than Shelly's money, what is Newt Gingrich? You've got a man who was a politician for a quarter-century but who has actually spent the last 14 years in entertainment. He writes books, he talks in front of crowds or TV cameras.

He's a stand-up. As in stand-up comic. He's been doing it most of his life -- it was what propelled him into the House Speaker's chair, the idea that he could vamp on camera, keep the attention of the nation focused on him, defy Presidents (starting with Bush the greater) and leave 'em laughing. Not all of 'em, but his people, his audience.

It's just what every stand-up comic does. The secret to a stand-up's success is finding his people and cultivating that audience. Jeff Foxworthy never appeared on Def Comedy Jam. Dave Chappelle was not part of the Blue Collar Comedy Tour.

Your audience can be very narrow, or it can be very broad, like that of Russell Peters. Its devotion could be an inch thick or a mile deep. You can fly across the sky like a meteor, a la Bill Hicks (left, above), or you can hang in there and become a legend, like Bill Cosby.

Of course there's a less charitable way to put this.

Political Tectonics

Think of this as Volume 16, Number 3 of A-Clue.com, the online newsletter I've written since 1997. Enjoy.

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Want to know the historical importance of the SOPA-PIPA fight? To learn that you must travel deep underground, to the world of political tectonics and what drives us.

Economically, what happened in the early years of the Nixon Era was that two key economic interests divided.

Manufacturing, mainly based in the Midwest, took political power throughout the Kennedy and Johnson years. Technology, companies like Intel and Hewlett-Packard, both based in California, gravitated toward the Republicans. And it was this divide within the business community that ultimately proved crucial, as the New Deal moat was destroyed in the 1972 Nixon landslide, validating the creation of “fiat currency” to solve tech's natural tendency toward deflation.

This sort of thing had happened before. Each one of our political crises began when one industry seized power and, in time, other industries objected. It was the final triumph of the new economic order, the validation of a new set of myths and values in succeeding elections, that eventually resulted in each New Thesis, each new Age of American politics.

From the Age of Jackson to that of Lincoln. From the Age of Lincoln to that of Teddy Roosevelt. From the Progressive Era to the New Deal. From the New Deal to the Nixon Era.

From the Nixon Era to the Obama Era. It's not the leaders who create their times. They just ride the waves and take the credit. It's economic change that drives the train, under the surface.

What Tebowism Really Tells Us

Think of this as Volume 16, Number 2 of A-Clue.com, the online newsletter I've written since 1997. Enjoy.

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It's one of the ironies of our political cycles that a decisive turn is often followed by the other side's capture of the culture.

Think about it.

1. The South and the “Lost Cause” were culturally ascendant after the Civil War, even as the grave closed over the Confederacy.

2. Populist-fueled racism became a popular cultural expression after progressives captured the flag in the 1890s. See “The Birth of a Nation” for a fine example from that era.

3. The 1930s and 1940s saw a very conservative culture, which you can see in the movies of that era. I might point specifically to the Andy Hardy-Judy Garland movies for its truest expression.

4. The 1960s were all about the rise of Leftist culture. Funny how the sideburns suddenly start growing across the establishment after Nixon won in 1972.

Today I see another turn happening all around me. My kids are a lot more like those of the 1930s than they're like me. Even the “Occupy Wall Street” movement was well-behaved. It was the police over-reaction to peaceful protest that said otherwise. And did you notice the lack of reaction to that over-reaction? In a cultural sense, we're very respectful of authority these days.

So the best sign of the left's rising to a semi-permanent state of power in America is probably the rise of Tim Tebow.

Tebow is the ultimate expression of muscular Christianity. He is a man who lives his values, and they're values that even Rick Santorum would approve of. He defies our expectations in a throwback sort of way, a run-first quarterback throwing himself into the line. Sort of like a Republican Muhammad Ali, and I'm very afraid he may wind up the same way, a victim of repeated head trauma, old before his time.

I'm seeing similar expressions across the culture. What are the biggest movie hits of the last few years? Why, it's the “Twilight” franchise, in which a young girl swoons before a strong, masculine presence. Our most popular musicians, like Jay Z and Bruno Mars, are self-consciously consumer products, careerist, careful in how they live, careful with their money.

What I find most fascinating about the Tea Party is not how reactionary it's been, but how ineffective. The Congress and governors elected by that movement in 2010 are now almost universally mocked, much as hippies were derided 40 years ago. We don't need Spiro Agnew, they write their own lines. Here's one – will someone get this guy a joint and a paisley flag, please?

It makes sense. Culture tends to act best in opposition. If we don't have anything to be angry about, we really do stagnate.

2012: The Landslide

Think of this as Volume 15, Number 52 of A-Clue.com, the online newsletter I've written since 1997. Enjoy.

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The future is hard to know, but in this case it's easy to guess.

There is a Democratic landslide in our future.

No one in the media wants to admit this, but it's baked in.

Once Americans take a decisive turn, and we've only taken six in our whole history as a nation before now, we don't reverse course.

We validate that turn, moving closer to our historic balance of rights and responsibilities, between money and power, between rich and poor, among one another.

2011 In Review: A Blank Page or Canvas

Think of this as Volume 15, Number 51 of A-Clue.com, the online newsletter I've written since 1997. Enjoy.

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A lot of people worried or argued about politics in 2011.

Me. Not so much. (Pictured, of course, is Georges Seurat's "Sunday afternoon on the Island of Le Grand Jatte," the masterpiece hanging in the Art Institute of Chicago that inspired another masterpiece, Stephen Sondheim's "Sunday in the Park with George.")

It's not that I don't care. I have political views which I express often. It's just that I became convinced this year that politics matters less than I thought, and that in any case political change is baked-into our system.

Some may be surprised at both conclusions, so let's take the first one first.

Why doesn't it matter? Because in the end politics reacts to change, it doesn't lead it. I am utterly convinced, now, that economic change drives the American train.

• The Civil War came about only after it became evident that machines could produce more than people. It was about the John Henry story, not Uncle Tom's Cabin.

• Populists and progressives arose only after it became evident that utility markets needed regulation in order to deliver fixed-price inputs to mass manufacturing. J.P. Morgan worked on behalf of this change, not against it.

• The New Deal arose after it became evident that production needed consumption or would inevitably result in deflation and disaster. FDR and Hitler were saying the same thing – buy.

• The 1960s were not about social change, but economic change. Less Jim Morrison, more Apollo XI. Less Easy Rider, more Apple.

The Real 2012 Campaign

Think of this as Volume 15, Number 50 of A-Clue.com, the online newsletter I've written since 1997. Enjoy.

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To hear the TV networks tell it we're about to be inundated by a flood of TV ads that will leave us sour and the country divided.

First of all, who are the “TV networks” anyway? They're the talking heads at Fox, MSNBC and CNN. How many people even watch those things? Maybe a total of 5.5 million people. How many voters are there? Turnout in 2008 was 132 million.

Oh, yes, but what about the local stations, and the “real” networks? That's where the money is going. You think people don't know where their mute buttons are? You think people are hanging on to every word of an ad for a candidate in a way they don't for one from a local car dealer?

Most people already have their minds made up. This has always been the case. John Alford of Rice, my old school, insisted to me recently that we're increasingly becoming segregated by politics, that our politics even defines who we marry, and that we may become two separate breeds of people, red and blue, over time.

Uh, no. People change as their circumstances change. Your world gets rocked in some way – you can't get a job coming out of college, you lose the career you had for 40 years – and so does your worldview. But this happens far away from the TV screens. It happens organically, inside us, as we experience life. We come out of these experiences different from the way we went into them.

What happens when our world is rocked? Where do we go? You think we go to TV? What is our medium of choice in these hard times?

The Internet.

Whip Deflation Now

The central truth of the U.S. economy this Christmas season can be summed up in one word.

Deflation.

Few Americans understand deflation because few have been alive to see it. The last such spiral came from 1929-33. This was what the Great Depression was all about.