Think of this as Volume 15, Number 16 of A-Clue.com, the online newsletter I've written since 1997. Enjoy.
Every generation's political thesis follows a pattern.
First, the old assumptions reach their sell-by date. They are overthrown, usually by someone associated with the old antithesis. But in leaning into the old assumptions as though they were still valid, the crisis leader angers core supporters. And it's only then, when supporters of the new Thesis react, that political change is truly established.
Think about it. Civil War. Lincoln was a former Whig, seen as squishy by Radical Republicans, and after his death those followers “waved the bloody shirt” for a generation to keep Democrats out of power.
The new antithesis, under Grover Cleveland, united Mugwump Republicans with urban and rural Democrats, but through the Populist Uprising it crashed. The new Thesis, under Teddy Roosevelt, prevailed for most of a generation, surrendering only to a new antithesis under Wilson, which accepted Roosevelt's assumptions on economic and foreign policy while adopting outright racism and religious know-nothingism to please its Populist base.
FDR had been part of the Wilson Administration. He supported the idea of budgetary balance at first, and built a lasting coalition only after his supporters rejected Wall Street Republicanism utterly, embracing Keynsian economics and an aggressive foreign policy. Nixon leaned against this as Eisenhower's Vice President, and after his election launched verbal attacks on members of the old coalition, leading his own followers to believe all Democrats were illegitimate, somehow foreign, hippie-type individuals out to take our guns, raid our cashboxes and surrender to the enemy of the moment.
Which brings us here. Obama overthrew the Nixon Coalition, which under GW Bush had reached its sell-by date with Iraq, Katrina and the Big Shitpile.
But there was an important element missing in the President's 2008 victory. Intolerance. By that I mean, most Democrats did not see Republicans as illegitimate, as dangerous, as worthy of loathing. Only Bush. Many were unwilling to defend their own ideas in 2010, which unleashed The Crazy.
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