Dana Blankenhorn

The Renewable Energy Sweet Spot is Storage

Think of this as Volume 17, Number 17 of A-Clue.com, the online newsletter I've written since 1997. Enjoy.

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While most attention in renewable energy is focused on solar panels, or wind turbines, or the use of pine pellets and algae for fuel, the real sweet spot is in storage.

Imre Gyuk , energy storage program manager at the Department of Energy, says it's not just because solar and wind are intermittant. It's also because an increasingly computer-driven society requires cleaner power.

You know this in your own life. If you have a desktop PC, chances are you have a Uninterruptible Power Supply (UPS) sitting under your desk, or at least a “power conditioning” power strip next to you – maybe both. Spikes can damage critical components.

News Sites Play Hide the Pickle

Think of this as Volume 17, Number 16 of A-Clue.com, the online newsletter I've written since 1997. Enjoy.

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Throughout the Web, the information with the highest cost and lowest return is news.

For me to appear at an event in person, I have to get dressed, get there, stay there, and get back home. It's a full day production. It keeps me from doing anything else.

The problem is that all this effort doesn't bring me any more page views than I'd get from just picking the story off the wire and commenting on it. Less, because I'm not a major news player.

The problem I face is exponentially greater for the major news player. Everyone links to the first person with the story, sometimes with credit but more often not, and the number of page views the first-mover gets may be relatively small. This isn't all bad. Often, the best story is the one that is well-considered, that brings in other facts, that's researched with links and thought through before it's published.

As a result, news sites have been engaged in a growing game I call hide the pickle.

Jack Bogle's Last Lament

Think of this as Volume 17, Number 8 of A-Clue.com, the online newsletter I've written since 1997. Enjoy.

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As a recent entrant into a new beat, finance, I have to find new heroes.

One of them is John C. "Jack" Bogle.

Jack Bogle is sort of the Richard Stallman of the investing world. He stands on principle, he stands for the customer, and he doesn't waver.

Unlike Stallman's, Bogle's principles have made him wealthy. He founded Vanguard Funds. He's retired, but he can't keep himself out of the fray, preaching the simple gospel that if you put a little away every week, and put that money into the broad market, your fortunes will rise.

It's called investing.

Will Biofuels Join the War Against Oil?

Think of this as Volume 17, Number 6 of A-Clue.com, the online newsletter I've written since 1997. Enjoy.

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I haven't gotten into the nitty-gritty of the War Against Oil here in some time.

For those who need a quick refresher, the War Against Oil is the chief economic necessity of our time. The Sun shines, the wind blows, we live on a molten rock, yet we still power our world like cavemen did, by digging up shit we can burn and burning it. As a result we're burning up our planet.

There are still (believe it or not) idiots who deny that methane and carbon dioxide are responsible for increased global temperatures, for more extreme weather, and for the melting of ice caps around the world. Some are paid shills for folks who want to dig shit up and burn it. Others are ideologues who scream “no” at anyone saying yes. And some are indeed idiots.

The political winds toward burning shit grew to hurricane force during the Bush years, with the wholesale takeover of the country by the fossil fuel industry. The results were war and (ta da) rising fossil fuel prices. We're now accustomed to paying $4/gallon for gasoline, just as the “boiling frog” got used to hot water, and the industry wants to apply more pressure.

All the fracking in the U.S. is not going to drop gas prices one dime. It's not in the frackers' interest to do it, they control the process of getting fracked oil to market, it's just not going to happen. Besides, fracking costs big money. Margins are thinner from fracking than they are from sticking a straw into the ground and sucking.

The only way we're going to get a thumb down on prices is with an alternative to fracking. And right now, that means biofuels.

Depth Beats Breadth in the Internet News Game

Think of this as Volume 17, Number 2 of A-Clue.com, the online newsletter I've written since 1997. Enjoy.

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 Wonder why I'm not rich, if I'm so smart?

It's because, as a reporter, I'm a polymath. My knowledge is a mile wide and an inch deep.

Journalism is my home because it lets me skip around from beat-to-beat depending on what interests me. Even for a journalist I'm not rich, for just that reason. Most journalists stick with one area, developing deep expertise, becoming pundits in those areas of expertise. I don't. I research an area and, once I decide I'm finished with it, I take my journalistic skill set and go somewhere else.

If A Story Isn't Linked To Does It Make a Sound?

Think of this as Volume 16, Number 39 of A-Clue.com, the online newsletter I've written since 1997. Enjoy.

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Since joining TheStreet.com earlier this year, I have been struck by their 1990s' attitude toward links. (Not that there's anything wrong with that.)

The idea is that, when you link to something, you tell people in the text who you're linking to. Sounds fair, doesn't it?

But what if the story you found on Google News originated with, say, The Wall Street Journal or The New York Times? Further, what if you found the story somewhere else, when it was republished by an affiliate?

Who do you link to?

The Open Source Contradiction

I will be on vacation next week and, in light of events decided y'all deserved an early present. So think of this as Volume 16, Number 35 of A-Clue.com, the online newsletter I've written since 1997. Enjoy.

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I have covered open source since 2005, and there is an inherent contradiction in the model.

The contradiction is that projects may be “owned” and that owners can be trusted to maintain community.

The contradiction has been hiding in plain sight ever since the open source movement split from Richard Stallman's Free and Open Source Software (FOSS) camp in 1998, with the publication of Eric Raymond's “The Cathedral and the Bazaar.” Raymond and other advocates for a more “capitalist” model figured you could deal with the contradiction by just saying, in effect, “fork it.”

But that's a cop-out. You need funding to run anything. Private enterprises don't exist for code, they exist for profit. As soon as the needs of the code contradict the needs of profit, and that's solely at the profit-making enterprise's discretion, it's going to go bad for the code.

I have seen this play out many, many times. Companies have tried to change their licenses, but users revolted. Groups have revolted against their corporate overlords and forked, some successfully, others less so. We've had open source inclines – Stallman's GPL turns out to be better at building community than any BSD-like license. We've had open source development inclines – a foundation-based development model can build community better than a GPL license alone.

What's happening right now with Oracle, which threw Open Office away, tried to extort money from Google over open source Java and is now turning mySQL proprietary – is par for the course.

It's the golden rule. He who has the gold makes the rules.

The most effective approach has proven to be what I call the “scorpions in a bottle” methodology of the Apache Software Foundation. That is, you bring multiple stakeholders under a development group which is dedicated solely to the code. This is supposed to separate the business needs of the code from the development needs of the code.

But even this is subject to abuse. Oracle screwed Apache over royally when it seized Java. Other companies abuse Apache by tossing them failed products with promises of support, only to see that support (and the code) wither, damaging the Foundation's good name. It has taken Apache's leaders a lot of time to figure out that they might be getting “used” when they're offered projects, and to resist that abuse. It's an ongoing process.

Corporations understand the open source contradiction better than open source advocates do. Simon Phipps says open source “won” the Microsoft Word vs. Open Office format battle because Microsoft eventually decided to support the Open Document Format. But its gaming of the standards system maintained Word's enormous market share, and Office's profitability within the company. What was bad for the code was good for the company.

Many corporations confuse the open nature of open source development and the free downloads with free software. Open source and free software are different things. Red Hat is a true open source company, but it still requires you to buy Red Hat Enterprise Linux, even though you can look at that code, and even while that code is based on the free Fedora distribution every enterprise that's serious about using Red Hat's Linux pays for.

They pay and pay and pay. Because free code that's not understood isn't worth much to an enterprise, and the only way to truly understand that code is to engage fully in the open source process, offering “committers” to the cause who will work for the project on company time, contributing enhancements, filing bug reports, and testing buggy beta code. The love you take from open source code is always equal to the love you make, and while time is money, money is time. The deeper you engage with open source code, and its community, the more value you gain from it.

What's true for code can also be true for words, and this is what drives companies crazy. They see how Wikipedia destroyed what had been a thriving encyclopedia industry, despite all their efforts to sow Fear, Uncertainty and Doubt about the project – efforts that continue throughout academia to this day – and they get scared.

That's why Disney writers threw some open source misinformation into a kids' sitcom recently. A nerdy kid with a PC laptop asks her friends if they used open source code with a hidden virus inside it – as though open source code is virus-ridden but Microsoft code never has security flaws. The premise was stupid, but it's ingrained in the corporate mindset.

Fortunately, as with social issues like gay marriage, minds can be changed. My wife works at a company that is totally proprietary, that for security reasons never, ever trusted open source code. Until recently. Now it's suddenly using open source regularly, even asking, before engaging in a small project, whether there might be an open source workaround. That's called progress.

The open source contradiction may never be bridged, but over time it gets easier to jump over. You learn who code's friends are, who code's friends aren't. You learn that it's not just code, but people and organizations you have to learn to trust. And if you're burned once in a while – as every kid is as they grow into fully social adults – you learn from that.

Open source is growing up. It grows along with Moore's Law of Training, and as we all should know by now there is no Moore's Law of Training. There is just learning.

 

 

 

Who is Herbert Hoover Now?

Think of this as Volume 16, Number 30 of A-Clue.com, the online newsletter I've written since 1997. Enjoy.

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Recessions are turned into depressions by the actions, or inactions, of people.

Why did the Crash of 1929 result in a recession so severe that the President who dithered over it wound up calling it just “a little depression” – hence the term Great Depression?

None other than Herbert Hoover.

Hoover was not a bad man, nor a stupid man. He may have been one of our brightest Presidents. And until 1929 he was widely celebrated for his work against starvation in Europe after World War I, and the destruction of Louisiana in 1927.

But in the face of collapsing asset values he dithered. He represented creditors, who expected debtors to pay their debts. The fact that the debtors were bankrupt mattered nothing. Liquidate them.

Hoover made several half-hearted efforts to ameliorate the situation. It was the Hoover Administration that created the Reconstruction Finance Corp. But he would go so far and no further, and he would go nowhere fast. First, do no harm he said.

First, do something said his opponent. Franklin Roosevelt. America believed that. FDR was not an ideologue. He was a progressive like Hoover. But he was willing to experiment, to try things, and to discard what didn't work, then try again. Mainly, he was willing to use inflation, to cut the value of the creditors' debts, to allow them to be paid in higher-priced goods. And it worked. U.S. economic growth during the first Roosevelt Administration averaged almost 10%.

So who is Herbert Hoover now?

Golden Age for Writers

Think of this as Volume 16, Number 29 of A-Clue.com, the online newsletter I've written since 1997. Enjoy.

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I'm doing pretty well these days. I write each day for TheStreet.com, do a few pieces for Seeking Alpha, and I'm usually done by noon.

But I'm not alone. These are golden days for writers.

The reason is that, while newspaper editors keep whinging they don't know how to make money and that people refuse to pay for news, lots of companies have cracked the code.

1. Identify a business, industry, or lifestyle to focus on. Politics can be a lifestyle.

2. Offer ample opportunities for interaction. Scale it. Keep people talking back-and-forth to one another. You're building a community. Focus on that.

3. Show that your community represents your target market – that you have a big share of buyers in your target – and sell against it.

4. Wash, rinse, repeat.

Days of Apps

Think of this as Volume 16, Number 28 of A-Clue.com, the online newsletter I've written since 1997. Enjoy.

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In 2012 the software industry is like an iceberg. Most of it is under the water.

Not underwater, mind you. Under the water.

That's because the world of “applications” is over. It's all about the apps now, brutha. And no one in the app business has yet gone public. The smart VC guys and private equity people are putting tons of money into the space, so there's no need to go public, no need to give the public investor a taste.

It's like the social boom. You'll know the bust has started when one of these outfits starts looking for suckers on NASDAQ.

Doesn't mean there's no there, there. There is. I found that out Monday when I went to a “MeetUp” for Techcrunch.com at the Sweetwater Brewery, a few miles from my home.

The place was packed. Cars were parked around the corner and down the next street. (They could do it because this is a warehouse district where everyone else goes home around 5 PM.) There were well over 3,000 people there. Mostly male, mostly young, mostly white. But not exclusively. I was also pleased to find two people who rode bikes there. A guy my own age who admitted he'd taken the train to a nearby transit stop, and a younger guy who'd ridden 8 miles in rush-hour traffic.