The action is in new technologies that will drop costs far below that level on CIGS and thin films of all kinds.
Meanwhile gallium-arsenide cell producer Semprius, based on North Carolina, says its print-transfer technology has produced a module with an efficiency of 33.9% – nearly three times what current cells produce. Scaling that up, raising yields and dropping production costs, could have a profound impact on the market. (Siemens has a 16% stake in Semprius.)
And to this has to be added improvements in inverter technology, which can cut costs by increasing the amount of DC power produced by a cell that goes onto the AC grid, to system manufacturing costs, to channel costs, and to reductions in the cost of getting installations approved by government at all levels.
As I have said before these are early days in the solar industry. This is going to become the cheap energy no matter how much we drill baby drill. The only real question is whether America can capitalize on its advantages in research and capital delivery, not whether China plays “fair.”