The amount of solar energy in use will double every 12-18 months for as far out as I can see.
That has come true, and I've applied Moore's name to many other fields where I think it's warranted, where exponential improvements of that type are happening, and where I see them continuing to happen.
I've come in for some stick for that, and maybe Mr. Moore himself is unhappy with me. For that I'm sorry. But I'm no one, he's someone, and his name makes explicable predictions that seem inexplicable. It gets people thinking in new ways about the future, about possibilities. So that's why I do it.
That's a long winded way of saying that Moore's Law of Solar isn't Gordon Moore speaking.
It's important to put down a marker like this down right now, lest the current industry shake-0ut get you down. That shake-out continued apace today when Solyndra announced it was filing under Chapter 11, and expects to go out of business.
It's easy to see my prediction coming true for several reasons:
- Tons of solar energy is going in off-the-grid.
- Solar technology continues to change rapidly.
- Costs continue to decline as technologies scale.
The production of actual panels is not a great business right now, but that's the stage of the market we're at. We don't yet have the industry's version of a PC, something you can just buy, plug in, that will make you money.