In all the garbage being spewed about the Governor of Alaska, two names have been mentioned prominently -- Thomas Eagleton and Dan Quayle.
Democrats mention Eagleton, who was forced off the 1972 ticket for having had electroshock. Quayle is mentioned by Republicans, because despite his apparent imbecility Republicans won the 1988 election.
Few, if any, have mentioned the real analog -- Geraldine Ferraro .
I'm old enough to remember the Ferraro selection, and Ferraro is still around to tell us about it. But despite a lot of talk about qualifications, and corruption, the real issue then, as now, was the base.
- The 1984 election was the first where Democrats noticed, and sought to exploit, the "gender gap" -- the growing difference in voting preferences between men and women, mainly over social issues.
- The Palin selection represents the same thing. The difference is that the group being courted is not women, but social conservatives. And they are completely on the other side regarding the very same social issues.
As it was then so it will be now. The targeted group will support the ticket. Everyone else will recoil from the excesses of the targeted group.
Palin, like Ferraro, is emblematic of this group, its strengths and
weaknesses. In Palin's case she cut her state's special needs budget,
then had a Down's Syndrome baby. She cut funds for pregnant teenagers,
then had a pregnant teenager. She railed against the pork barrel, but
dipped in with both hands. She's absolutely shameless, just like every
other Elmer Gantry (and camp follower) around the country is.
Ferraro's selection wound up setting back the cause of women for
decades. Her ticket lost 3-2. While she seemed to do well in the debate
against George H.W. Bush, women wound up supporting Reagan narrowly and men did,
too -- overwhelmingly.
Palin is going to do the very same thing to social conservatives. It
seems that if you live in Idaho and your neighbors there think you're
sort of a Nazi there's still plenty of room in Alaska. By November that
place is going to stink down here like three-day old seal meat.
Alaska, it turns out, is not "Northern Exposure," filled with quirky
small town environmentalists and a few a-holes, like the Astronaut played by Barry Corbin, who always seem to get their comeuppance. It's filled with a-holes and Wal-Mart loving greedheads who run the state to suit themselves.
Alaska produces more wealth, per capita, than any state. It takes more money from the federal government, per capita, than any other state. So if you're an Alaskan and think the paragraph above was hell, it's just the truth and you think it's hell.
The Alaska Republican Party is really a pair of mafia families, the Stevens' and the Murkowski's. Palin became Governor by knocking out Frank Murkowski, but she was on the board of a Ted Stevens 527 group, and spent her time as Mayor of Wasilla sucking at his Senatorial teat like a desperate piglet. (She also left Wasilla heavily in debt.)
There is a force for decency in the state, but Palin hates it
with a passion. It's called the Alaska Democratic Party. (To the right, a more famous Palin, one Michael of Sheffield, England.)
Democrats are also going to have all the fun with Todd Palin that Republicans a generation ago had with John Zaccaro, the difference being Todd has done nothing to hide his snowy tracks, while Zaccaro wanted just to be left alone.
It's going to be a great campaign. And when it's done the Republicans are in for a 60-40, Reagan-Mondale like thumping. This is going to be precisely the generational change we've been looking for, a change that will continue for as long as we live.
And in a way we'll have Sarah Palin to thank for it. Politically she is the Republicans' real Bridge to Nowhere.
God bless her for it.
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