Are Most People Stupid?

One of the worst things about this time in the birth of a new generational thesis is the way some advocates come to fear the people.

I will admit up-front that I am very much in favor of the Democratic ticket. All of it. I believe Republicans have gone completely ga-ga, not only in how they are governing but in how they are campaigning.

With that out of the way let's go dump on some liberals.

I will take as my example Tristero over at Hullaballoo (although the criticism can apply to anyone there, even Digby, as well as way too many HuffPo and Daily Kos posters).

Here's an example of what I'm talking about:

By any reality-based standard, this election should be a rout [UPDATE; and it isn't, on any level]. The Republicans fielded a buffoon and a sociopath while Democrats chose genuine leaders. Racism explains a lot of it. Media bias explains a lot of it. But it is also the case that Democrats are hellbent on avoiding mentioning anything that could possibly be thought "unclean" when the Republicans have demonstrated that no sewer is so foul they won't stoop to disgorge its stinking mess into the public discourse.

Notice what is at work here. Not only does he dehumanize all Republican leaders, but claims they're going to get away with it. And the only reason for that must be that most people are sheep, that they're stupid, that they are easily led by their fears, that they won't stand up for themselves.

To which I say bullshit.

Part of the problem lies in the last 10 years, the years in which the Internet Thesis of Consensus has been gestating.

Republicans got away with impeaching the Clenis (although not with the electorate), they came close enough to win in 2000 and 2004, and they actually did win by exploiting fear in 2002.

But why? Not because people are stupid. Because Americans had been conditioned by 40 years of history to buy what they were selling.

It is very hard for people to change their political assumptions. This happens only on the margins, even in the best of times. Hubert Humphrey, Herbert Hoover, William J. Bryan and Stephen A. Douglas all got 40% of the vote in elections that transformed this country (the Nixon coalition, the New Deal coalition, the Progressive Coalition, the Union).  Despite everything that was happening around them, a significant minority of Americans refused to accept new ideas. Many became dedicated to defeating them. (The Lost Cause.) Liberal Democrats of long standing can all be counted among that number.

This year's election could be even closer, because people live longer than they ever did before. This means there are millions of people, like John McCain, who still remember the lessons of the last upheaval (that of the 60s) and are still guided by them. There really weren't that many New Dealers left by 1968, very few Rough Riders in 1932, and even fewer Grand Army of the Republic veterans in 1896. But there are still millions of Nixon voters out there, and you can get their knees to jerk today just as Nixon did.

Point is, these people are no longer a majority. Far from it. Most of today's voters were born after 1950, that is, they weren't voters in 1968.  It is true that too many of today's decision-makers remain guided by that time, in the media especially, but one purpose of this year's upheaval is to blow those people out, and if people aren't stupid, we will.

Which brings me to my most important point.

Most people are not stupid. Some people are stupid. Some people are bigoted. But the majority are not. If you believe most people are stupid you better stop supporting democracy (small d) and start supporting some other form of government, maybe a monarchy chosen by the heads of the Ivy League colleges, or a modified electoral system in which only those with advanced college degrees and ACLU cards get to vote.

We are entering a new era. The assumptions of the past era have been proven false. Yes, many people still follow them, just as there were lots of Jacksonian Democrats around in 1860. But their time is passing. Anyone else, anyone with a Clue or a pulse, who is doing any serious thinking in 2008, is far, far more likely to embrace the future than the past.

So stop assuming the worst. Stop hating on your own side. Get to work, hammer the opposition, and believe in democracy. It is on trial, as it has been on trial before. And maybe it can be destroyed by cynicism, by greed, by bigotry, and by appeals to hate.

But that's not the way to bet.